The 2016 EU Climate and Energy Strategy for 2030

As an input to the European Commission's work on a Climate and Energy Strategy for 2030, IIASA has produced a new set of projections for the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in the 28 member states. Future mitigation potentials to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gases in a cost-effective manner are assessed for each member state.

The European Commission is currently looking at cost-efficient ways to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by 2030 in line with its Roadmap for 2050. The suggests that, by 2050, the EU should cut its emissions to 80% below 1990 levels through domestic reductions alone. It identifies a cost-effective pathway to this goal - reductions of the order of 40% by 2030 and 60% by 2040. As a model partner in the EUCLIMIT project financed by the European Commission DG-CLIMA, IIASA's GAINS model provides the scientific background on the future emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases as input to the policy process. The model identifies baseline emission pathways to 2050 for the non-CO2 greenhouse gases methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and F-gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) as well as cost-effective mitigation pathways for each member state.

Activities are continuing to support the European Commission for their Effort Sharing proposal 2012-2030. The GAINS methodology and its recent updates are described in a methodology report:

L. Höglund-Isaksson, W. Winiwarter, P. Purohit, A. Gomez-Sanabria. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28 from 2005 to 2050: Final GAINS Reference scenario 2016 – GAINS model methodology.

This report quotes an extensive literature review on abatement of soil N2O emissions also available here:

W. Winiwarter and Mohankumar, S.E.P., Reducing nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture: review on options and costs.

The resulting new reference scenario (EU Reference Scenario 2016) outlines the development of the EU energy system to 2050 under current trends, taking account of the policies adopted on renewable energy, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and promotion of energy efficiency.

EU Reference Scenario 2016. Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050 - Full Report available from the commission’s web site.

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Last edited: 08 November 2018


Lena Höglund Isaksson

Senior Research Scholar

Pollution Management Research Group|Energy


and Environment Program

T +43(0) 2236 807 368

Link to Commission Web Site


Capros, P., De Vita, A., Tasios, N., Siskos, P., Kannavou, M., Petropoulos, A., Evangelopoulou, S., Zampara, M., et al. (2016). EU Reference Scenario 2016 - Energy, transport and GHG emissions Trends to 2050. European Commission Directorate - General for Energy, Directorate - General for Climate Action and Directorate - General for Mobility and Transport

Höglund-Isaksson, L. , Winiwarter, W. , Purohit, P. , & Gomez-Sanabria, A. (2016). Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28 from 2005 to 2050: GAINS model methodology. IIASA Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Winiwarter, W. & Mohankumar, S.E.P. (2015). Reducing nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture: review on options and costs. IIASA Report. Laxenburg

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