Workshop on Global Air Pollutant Emission Scenarios

While substantial efforts have been devoted to global analyses of the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other long-lived greenhouse gases, air pollutant emissions have received only limited attention in the global context.

Past and likely future trends in air pollutant emissions evolve rather differently from those of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs), so that superficial extrapolations of GHG trends would lead to misleading conclusions for air pollutant emissions.

In many world regions, the evolution of air pollutant emissions has effectively decoupled from economic growth. Since 1990, air pollutants declined (SO₂), stabilized (NOx) or increased slightly (BC, OC and NH₃). In the literature, scenarios of future air pollutant emissions span a wide range, mainly due to different assumptions about future environmental policies. While the more recent scenarios agree on declining air pollutants in the next decade, avoiding potential rebounds of emissions in the longer run will require additional policy interventions.

Global emissions of NOx, 2005

The workshop will review the recent emission scenarios developed for TF HTAP, and compare them with other global, national, and sectoral projections.  Reasons for differences in the projections will be identified, and assumptions on structural changes, technological improvements and dedicated environmental legislation that lead to these differences will be discussed.  Where available, information on the estimated costs of measures included in the scenarios will be presented and compared.  The workshop will also include a discussion of how global and regional scenarios may be employed in future analyses under the TF HTAP, TFIAM, and other forums to address policy-relevant questions.  

In-person participation will be limited because of space constraints; however, remote participation will be available via web conferencing. If you are interested in participation, please contact Markus Amann or Zbigniew Klimont (for contact details see above).

Last edited: 28 April 2015