POP YSSP 1998-2005
2005
The Young Scientists joined the collaborative project between IIASA and the Institute of Statistics of UNESCO whose objectives are reconstructing and projecting the world population for all countries for the period 1960 - 2030 by age, sex and educational attainment.
Jean-Christophe Fotso
Malawi’s Future Human Capital: Is the country on track to meeting the MDGs on Education?
African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Nairobi, Kenya
Email:
Abstract: This study uses demographic and multi-state population projections to estimate the future population structure by age, sex and educational attainment in Malawi, and importantly, to assess the likelihood of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) related to universal primary education and gender disparity no later than 2015. Data from the 1998 and 1987 censuses, and from the 1992 and 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are used. First, we examine school enrolment ratios, repetition and dropout rates, and educational attainment, as well as differentials in infant and child mortality by level of the mother’s education. Second, we estimate fertility, mortality, and educational transition rates from the DHS. Third, we estimate the population structure in 2000 and then perform forward projections to 2015. Finally, we examine the percentage distribution of the projected population by level of education. Malawi is one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with a population close to 10 million as of 2000. Less than 80 percent of the 6-14 year old children are still in school, and only 15 percent of those aged 14-17 have completed primary school.
Ying Ji / China
Human Capital Projection in Vietnam
Email:
Peking University, China
Abstract: Human capital is an important factor in economic development. Using multi-state techniques, population can be projected by education level, providing information on the human capital stock. In this paper, we use 1989 and 1999 census data for Vietnam and some data from the United Nations to estimate the fertility rate, mortality rate and schooling transition rate by sex, age and education. Using the PDE multi-state population projection model developed by the World Population Program at IIASA and three scenarios, we forecast the population of Vietnam by sex, age and education from 2000 to 2050. The education differentials between male and female are compared. The policy implication of the results is discussed.
Frederick Mugisha / Uganda
The Consequences of Educational Expansion and Human Capital Formation in Uganda: Reflections on the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development
African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Nairobi, Kenya
Email:
Abstract: The year 2005 marks the start of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development and with this a need to investigate conditions under which the accumulated human capital through education will contribute to sustainable development. The human capital stock for Uganda is projected using multi-state population techniques. The results suggest that while the majority of the adult population currently has only up to primary education, in the next thirty-five years, the majority of the population will have at least secondary education with those of tertiary education increasing almost 4-fold. The research work also shows that this expansion in education, much as it is extremely welcome, will change the education composition of the labor force, the majority having tertiary education – causing a shrinking in the agricultural labor force, an industry that currently contributes 39 percent of GDP. The other industrial sectors will have to grow at a much faster rate than they are growing currently to accommodate the growing labor force, or agriculture will have to be structured to attract the growing educated labor force.
Pawel Strzelecki / Poland
The Education Projections for Selected European Countries
Institute of Statistics and Demography at the Warsaw School of Economics (WSE)
Abstract: My presentation has two parts. The first one is a short introduction to the methodology of themulti-state demographic projections. It emphasizes its use in education projections. This issue is very important for understanding the consequences of the changes in human capital in different countries in the next decades. The description of the method is illustrated with examples from my current IIASA project - education projections for selected European countries. The second part of my presentation is a brief description of the next steps of my research at IIASA and on my PhD thesis. At IIASA I will focus on the use of multistate methods in simultaneous education and labour force projections. In my PhD thesis I want to learn about the advantages and disadvantages of using multistate methods versus agent-based approaches in socio-economic research.
Zewdu Woubalem
Estimates of Excess Adult Deaths Due to HIV/AIDS in Kenya
African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Nairobi, Kenya
Email:
Abstract: Using data from the 1989 and 1999 population and housing censuses of Kenya, this paper estimates the total number of intercensal adult deaths due to HIV/AIDS. It also investigates patterns of adult mortality due to HIV/AIDS by age, sex and education level. Results show higher mortality among people with secondary or higher education than those with little or no education. This pattern is true for both men and women. Higher mortality for women than men is observed during the study period. This research is the first to use census data to demonstrate differential mortality due to AIDS by education level in sub-Saharan Africa.
2004
Sarah Staveteig
Home email:
PhD Student, UC-Berkeley
Graduate Group in Demography and Sociology
2232 Piedmont Ave. Berkeley, CA 94720
http://demog.berkeley.edu/~sarahs/
The Peccei Scholarships 2005 went to Sarah Staveteig of the United States.
IIASA Summer Project: "Relative Cohort Size and the Risk of Civil War, 1961-2001"
Most theories of population and war follow the Malthusian line of reasoning that overpopulation inevitably leads to environmental scarcity, thus inducing conflict. Yet studies of civil war suggest that overpopulation and legal agricultural commodities are unrelated to contemporary warfare. Conflict over resources has generally stemmed from maldistribution (structural scarcity) or a desire to control luxury resources, not from environmental scarcity. Population experts also now suggest that age structure matters more than population size, with more youthful countries being more prone to conflict. For the first time, this paper will test the combined influence of age structure and luxury resources on the outbreak of civil warfare worldwide from 1960 to 2000. Preliminary logistic regression results suggest there are measurable and positive effects of luxury resources and of a youthful age structure on the probability of civil war onset. The extent of interaction between the two factors remains to be determined.
Laura Sokka
Email:
University of Helsinky, Finland
Forthcoming Interim Report: Water management under uncertainty in Egypt.
Laura worked under the supervision of Warren Sanderson on Climate Change and Water Availability in Egypt.
Laura graduated in Environmental Science and Policy from the University of Helsinki, Finland on September 2003. She is currently a first year Ph.D. student at the Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences of University of Helsinki. Her Ph.D. thesis will deal with the long-term trends of nutrient flows in Finland and the impact of different anthropogenic factors on them. She is presently working as a research scientist at the Finnish Environment Institute in Helsinki participating in a life cycle assessment of hard coal electricity. Her main research interests include industrial ecology, nutrient flows, waste management and energy policy issues. At IIASA she will be studying population-environment interactions of Egypt under the supervision of Dr. Warren Sanderson.
2003
Mausami Desai
Cohort Patterns in Residential Transportation Energy Use: Implications for Carbon Emissions?
Mausami worked under the guidance of Brian O'Neill. She analyzed historical trends in the residential transportation sector and assessed the influence of demographic determinants in order to potentially improve the quality of energy demand projections.
(Supervised by Brian O'Neill)
Thomas Fent
Simulation Models of Population Balance
Vienna Institute of Demography at the Austrian Academy of Science
Prinz-Eugen-Straße 8, A-1040 Vienna, Austria
Email:
This model provides a unified theoretical treatment of the relationship between population growth and economic growth taking age structure, education, and the environment into account. The framework allows us to analyze consistently the effects of rapid population growth and rapid aging in a consistent fashion. The model separates the long-run effects of demographic and educational changes from their transitional effects. We conclude that sustainable development requires population balance.
(Supervised by Wolfgang Lutz)
Yumiko Kamiya
Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Brazil
The 1998 Constitution made pension coverage universal in Brazil. As a consequence, elderly in both rural and urban areas found a substantive increase in their non-labor incomes. Using information from the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD), this study will examine the impact of the change in pension income in the living arrangements of the elderly in Brazil.
(Supervised by Warren Sanderson)
2002
Puja Jawahar
Estimating the Impact of HIV on India's Population
Maryland School of Public Affairs
Van Munching Hall, University of Maryland, College Park
Puja worked under the guidance of Warren Sanderson on estimating the spread of AIDS in India. She used the Botswana HIV/AIDS simulation model (Demographic Model) as a base for estimating figures for India. The model incorporated possible policy options and tried to measure the effectiveness of different policies in limiting the spread of the disease.
Christian Leuprecht
Demographics of Conflict: Mauritius & Fiji
Queen`s University, Department of Political Studies, Centre for the Study of Democracy
Mackintosh-Corry Hall, 99 University Av., Kingston, Ontario, Canada
http://qsilver.queensu.ca/~leuprech/
During his stay at IIASA, Christian worked under the auspices of Wolfgang Lutz. His immediate goal was to devise a model that relates variables of demographic change with sociological variables in order to forecast the potential for political instability in selected countries that face ethnic tensions. This model is integral to his hypotheses about preventative measures of state intervention in ethnic demographics that are effective and defensible in a liberal-democratic normative framework.
James Raymer
The Estimation of Place-to-Place Migration Flows: Europe and China
Department of Geography, University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309-0260
Email:
http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~raymer/
James Raymer worked under supervision of Warren Sanderson and continued his dissertation research on the estimation of migration flows, focusing on place-to-place migration between regions of the world.
2001
Henriette Engelhardt
On the Changing Relationship Between Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation Over Space and Time
Various authors find that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor market participation rate turned from a negative value before the 1980s to a positive value thereafter. However, Kögel (2001) finds with fixed effects panel methods applied on pooled time series that unobserved country-specific heterogeneity accounts for the changing association between fertility and female employment. My paper aims to find the factors behind the unobserved heterogeneity (e.g., relative income, female wages, unemployment rate of males and females, school enrollment rate of females, purchased child care, number of females in public sector, number of females in part time jobs, divorce rate, social expenditure in families of GDP) and to estimate their relative impact by empirically analyzing time series of female labor force participation and fertility with simultaneous multiple panel data methods.
Aaron Gullickson
Coming or Going? Understanding Patterns of Net Migration from Outmigration Rates
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
This presentation explores how much variability in net migration patterns to a certain area can be created simply by scale adjustments to outmigration rates. It can be shown that simple adjustments in the scale and population exposure of sending areas can produce different "families" of patterns in receiving areas.
Robert Serek
The Accuracy of Past Population Projection - Ex-post Errors for TFR and Life Expectancy
Institute of Statistics and Demography
Warsaw School of Economics
I am analyzing ex-post errors in national and UN population forecasts for South-East Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) and Europe (Austria, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden). I am looking for the answer concerning possible differences in assumptions made in national and UN official forecasts since 1970s. I focus only on total fertility rates and life expectancy at birth.
Suresh Sharma
Fertility in Uttar Pradesh: A District Level Analysis
The State of Uttar Pradesh in India with its large population size and its high fertility is getting focused attention towards realization of the national population policy goals. The district level rapid household survey under the reproductive and child health program (RCH) was the first to be carried out over the entire district in India. The study attempts to highlight the linkage between fertility, other RCH components, and other socioeconomic and demography profiles at the district level in UP. We will briefly examine the linkages through bivariate analysis and thereafter pinpoint the relative signification of alternative predictors through multiple regression analyses.
2000
Eva Alfredsson
The Effects of Demographic Changes on Lifestyles, Consumption Patterns and CO2 Emissions
Spatial Modelling Centre (SMC), Kiruna, Sweden
Email:
Federico Geremei
Population Dynamics with HIV: Namibia and Botswana
Email:
Wdward Kironji
The Formulation of a Household-Based Development Index and Assessing the Efficacy Thereof in a Rural Area
University of Pretoria, South Africa
Email:
Zethu Matebeni
The Prevalence of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Re-evaluation
University of Pretoria, Department of Sociology
South Africa
Email:
1999
Peter Buwembo
The Biases in HIV/AIDS Sentinel Surveillance Data and the Proposed Methods of Correction with Reference to Namibia
Statistics South Africa
Email:
Vania Ceccato
Assessing the Impact of Modernization on Fertility: The Case of Mozambique
Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
Email:
Abstract: Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world. It also has one of the world's highest birth rates. Until recently there has been virtually no way to study Mozambique's high fertility because of the civil war. This paper uses a very recent survey of Mozambican women from 1997. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of modernization on fertility in Mozambique, using as a background the "supply-demand theory" presented by Easterlin and Crimmins (1985). The first part of this paper describes the indicators of modernization for Mozambique by using maps, and indicates eventual correlation. The second part deals with the estimation of equations for demand for children, the supply of children and the use of contraception. The third part shows how the modernization variables visualized in the first part of the paper influence all these equations. The results show that the country has one of the highest demands for children in the world, but also one of the largest supplies of children, followed by high infant and child mortality. In many provinces, the regulation costs are still high. Those who deliberately use contraceptives already have many children. Among the modernization variables, education is the factor that most affects supply, demand and also regulation costs in Mozambique.
1998
Andres Antonio Buenfil
Emergy Evaluation of Water Supply Alternatives for Namibia
University of Florida, My Homepage
Email:
Abstract: Energy is all the energy of one kind previously required to produce something. By evaluating complex systems using emergy methods, the major inputs from the human economy and those coming “free” from nature can be integrated to analyze social and environmental problems holistically. Emergy analysis is a tool that can complement traditional cost-benefit analysis to make more integrated resource management decisions. In this study, emergy analysis was used to compare alternative ways of supplying water to Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, to select the most appropriate option.
The study evaluated the following three out of ten water supply alternatives: 1) taking water from the Kavango River; 2) desalinating seawater from the coast, near Walvis Bay; and 3) pumping groundwater from the Tsumeb aquifer. It was concluded that the best alternative, among these three options, is to use groundwater from the Tsumeb aquifer system, but without exceeding maximum sustainable pumping yields. This alternative consists of pumping no more than 20 million m3 of groundwater per year from the Tsumeb aquifer and connecting this water with the Eastern National Water Carrier near Grootfontein. However, if the Kudu natural gas reserves along Namibia’s continental shelf can be used to co-generate electricity and distillate water, the desalination option might provide the greatest benefit for the local, national, and regional economy, despite having the highest capital cost. The worst alternative evaluated was the Kavango River option, in spite of being the least expensive system proposed. This alternative may not be sustainable in the long run and have large negative effects to the environment. Before any new water supply system is implemented, efforts should be concentrated in reducing water demand (e.g. by using economic incentives) and increasing efficiency (e.g. by reducing water losses from leaking pipes and evaporation).
Paul Kibuuka
Botswana Human Resource Projections
Development Bank of Southern Africa
Email:
Refilwe Makweya
Migration in Botswana
University of Pretoria, Republic of South Africa
Email:
Michael Rathebe Mojaki
Poverty and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa
University of North West, Republic of South Africa
Email:
Kuberin Packirisamy
HIV/AIDS and Population Projections Modeling for the PDE-Case Studies Botswana, Namibia, and Mozambique
Chief Director
Policy,Planning and Research Unit
Department of Economic Affairs-Northern Cape
Republic of South Africa
Tel. (053)839 4011
E-mail: