POP YSSP 2011-2014
2014
Abhishek Kumar
Supervisor: Valeria Bordone
Co-Supervisor: Raya Muttarak
Research Project: Intergenerational Influence on Fertility Behaviour of Young Women in Rural Bihar, India
Abstract: Bihar is the third most populous state of India. According to the 2011 census, in the past decade, the state has the highest population growth rate of the major states of India due to lagging behind both socioeconomically and demographically. Women in Bihar, on average, still bear around four children in their reproductive lifetime because of the interplay of a complex set of individual, household and community socioeconomic (micro and macro) and cultural factors. While the study of the role of socioeconomic factors on fertility is well established, little is known about the influence of the fertility and family size preferences of older generations (mothers-in-law and mothers) on the fertility behavior of younger generations (daughters-in-law) in India in general and Bihar in particular. Understanding the generational influence on fertility behavior and its underlying mechanisms may be crucial from a policy perspective.
Using cross-generational data (collected from two generations) of 450 pairs of co-residing mothers-in-law and daughters-in-law, the present study focuses on investigating the influence of older generations’ fertility and fertility preferences on the family size preferences of younger generations. This study also attempts to examine the influence of older generations’ and familial fertility on the transmission of age at first birth, second birth, and third birth among the younger generation. Coombs scale, ordinary least square, and event history analysis are used to examine the intergenerational influence. The study will also discuss the potential policy-relevant issues and the wider implications emerging from this research.
Biographical Sketch: Abhishek Kumar graduated in Geography from Banaras Hindu University (BHU) in 2007, thereafter doing an M.Phil. in Population Studies at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, in 2009. He is now working on his Ph.D., entitled “Intergenerational transmission of fertility behaviour in rural Bihar.” His research interests include socioeconomic inequality in maternal and child health status, and use of maternal and child healthcare services. In 2013-2014 he was a Policy Communication Fellow of the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), Washington DC, USA.
Adriana Reyes
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
Co-Supervisor: Marcin Stonawski
Research Project: Explaining population movements by variation in past growth rates of nations
Abstract: The world has seen unprecedented demographic changes taking place over the last half century. Overall, the population size has increased and aged. Globally, immigration has continued to grow, increasing by 65% since 1990 to a stock of about 232 million immigrants in 2013 (United Nations, 2013). In large part, immigrants are concentrated in more developed nations, which also happen to have lower fertility rates than many developing nations. For instance, Europe has seen its fertility rate fall from above reproduction levels in the 1960s to currently below replacement fertility, causing a population decline in several countries.
My research project will attempt to explain population movements between countries by fertility characteristics of host and sender nations, for instance, do migrants move toward areas where there has been lower population growth. This study will utilize a new global database on gross national origin-destination flows for 196 countries between 1990 and 2010 (Abel and Sander 2014, Science) allowing detailed estimates to be made on migration. This is important, as it relates to whether migration flows go from countries that experience high population increase toward nations with slow or negative growth. It is also important in terms of global and regional TFR—if migrants adjust their TFR to the host country, will high migration imply lower regional and global fertility over time, and what would global fertility be without migration?
Biographical Sketch: Adriana Reyes graduated in 2010 from the University of Arizona with a bachelor’s degree in Sociology and in 2012 with a master’s degree in Sociology and Demography from Pennsylvania State University. The title of her thesis was “Left Out of the Equation: Older Immigrants and Health Insurance Coverage.” She is currently a fourth-year Ph.D. candidate at Pennsylvania State University. Her main areas interests include social demography, immigration, population aging, life course, and inequality.
Niharika Tripathi
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
Co-Supervisor: Marcin Stonawski
Research Project: Preferred life expectancy and its correlates among elderly women in rural Uttar Pradesh, India
Abstract: Population aging poses diverse socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related challenges across nations. Recent research indicates that feminization of aging is under way as women constitute a sizable proportion of the elderly population. Older women are more likely to be poorer in old age, more likely to face discrimination, and can be subjected to abuse and violence. Women in rural areas are frequently responsible for caring for grandchildren, as their own children migrate to cities in search of opportunities for a better livelihood. Due to the gender-specific division of labor, women often have to care for older relatives, and then also for husbands throughout their life cycle. Finally, when these older women themselves need help after a life full of hard work, there is no one left to care for them (UN 2002). This research examines the association between the preferred life expectancy and its selected socioeconomic and demographic correlates. Given the several multiple socioeconomic and health deprivations they face, elderly women may not desire to live many more years into the future, particularly in the rural areas. Findings will contribute to the debate on whether ongoing efforts to improve life expectancy are really warranted.
Results may help to address emerging issues in the field of active and healthy aging of population, and to understand the circumstances that shaped these notions and the expectations of elderly women. Data for the study have been drawn from primary survey of 300 elderly women from four villages of Deoria district in the eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh in India. Both quantitative and qualitative information were collected to explore the gender dimensions of aging, such as inheritance and property rights, role in decision-making, female autonomy, financial dependency, perceived health status, preferred life expectancy, economic and social support networks, involvement in community life, social well-being, and life satisfaction.
Biographical Sketch: Niharika Tripathi is a fourth-year doctoral candidate at the International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India, under the University Grants Commission (UGC), New Delhi, Senior Research Fellowship Program. Her thesis is entitled “Gender and Elderly: Inheritance rights, family support, autonomy and well-being of elderly women in rural Uttar Pradesh, India.” Her main research interests encompass issues on gender and population aging, inheritance rights and women’s health, social capital and well-being of the elderly, family life education, and adolescent health. She earned a master’s degree in Population Studies from the International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India, in 2010 and a B.A. and M.A. in Sociology from Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India, in 2006 and 2008 respectively.
Haochen Wang
Supervisor: Anne Goujon
Co-Supervisor: Samir K.C., Gui-Ying Cao
Research Project: A projection of human capital in Beijing—Education and health perspectives
Abstract: In the case of China, rapid economic growth in some areas is leading to regional disparity with a large floating population, particularly of the well-educated. It is important to study the educational composition of present migration flows in order to better project future population growth and education in regional China. The methodology available for such projections is that of multi-state population projection, developed at IIASA. Next to improvements in education levels, health can also be considered as a way of improving human capital. Currently, with rapid economic development, many people live in Beijing and other developed cities in China. The concentration of people leads to more vehicles which is a possible source of haze, resulting in adverse health effects. Studies show that Beijing has a higher mortality rate from lung cancer than other big cities. Poor health weakens human capital and may cause migration from Beijing. Some people choose to live in a Beijing suburb or Hebei Province (especially in the northern part which has a better environment). Meanwhile, some students from the southern provinces return home after their graduation for better environment. So health may affect migration, especially among well-educated people. Therefore, the effect of health on migration can be utilized in the projection model.
My proposal is to take Beijing as the research object and to supplement the effect of health on migration in the PDE projection model. The first step is to analyze the association between health, migration, and life expectancy. People with poorer health may emigrate. The second step is to integrate the effects into the projection model to discover the extent of the effects among people with different education levels. In this model, the impact of changes in the one-child policy on the fertility rate is also considered, which can help identify the extent to which the change will influence the number and structure of a population in a city. This should make the simulation more comprehensive.
Biographical Sketch: Haochen Wang graduated in 2010 from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA. He is currently a third-year Ph.D. student at Peking University. His thesis is entitled: “A projection of human capital in Beijing—Education and health perspectives.” His main fields of scientific interest include population health, environment and health, and forecasting techniques.
2013
Alessandra Carioli
Supervisor: Bordone Valeria
Co-Supervisor: Serguei Scherbov
Research Project: Projecting Provincial Period Fertility in Spain
Abstract: Spain underwent serious socio-economic changes since the end of the Francoist regime in 1975. Moreover, the dawn of the Second Demographic Transition, which reached Spain later with respect to other Western-European countries, set in motion a series of substantial variations in fertility patterns in the Iberian Peninsula (Devolder & Ortiz, 2010; Reher, Ortega, & Sanz-Gimeno, 2008). Total Fertility Rates started to decline; postponement shaped severely the new fertility schedule advancing mean age at childbirth and cutting off higher order births. These changes were far from homogeneous as heterogeneity has always been a peculiarity of the regional fertility in Spain (Leasure, 1963; Livi-Bacci, 1968). My project as participant to the IIASA Young Scientist Summer Program aims at forecasting TFR of 52 Spanish provinces using time series of Total Fertility Rates from 1975 to 2011, taking into consideration the spatial component that affects correlation among geographical units. In particular, looking at the differences of TFR across the various provinces with respect to fertility indicators over time, I single out through means of time series cluster analysis three main groups of provinces that maintain similar trends of TFR over time. These groups of provinces will serve as basis for future forecasting of TFR trends to obtain probabilistic projections of TFR.
Biographical Sketch: Alessandra Carioli graduated from Bocconi University in year 2006 attaining a Master of Science in Economics, with a thesis on spline interpolation models in Demography “Analysing fertility trends through Schmertmann's model: Italy and Sweden compared”. She worked for a year at Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics.
She is currently a PhD Student at PRC (Population Research Centre) department of Spatial Sciences at Groningen University, realizing her research at NIDI, the Hague. Her PhD subject is the evolution of fertility at regional and provincial level in Italy and Spain during the recent decades. Her main research interests are fertility, life tables, formal demographic methods, spatial econometrics, forecasting techniques and spline interpolation techniques.
Solveig Christiansen
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
Co-Supervisor: Dalkhat Ediev
Research Project: The Future Environmental Impact of Divorce
Abstract: In the last decades there has been a growing interest in how changes in demographic variables influence the environment. Quite a few consumer decisions that affect the environment take place at the household rather than at the individual level. Furthermore, larger households benefit from economies of scale which means that the per capita consumption, of for example energy, is smaller the larger the household. The purpose of my project is to forecast the impact divorce will have on the environment. I will compute a household forecast 30 years into the future broken down by age, sex, household position and number of children. Computing alternative scenarios that differ only with respect to divorce rates and combining the projected household numbers with information about household energy patterns, I will be able to explore how divorce affects future energy use.
Biographical Sketch: Solveig Christiansen is currently a third-year PhD student and research fellow in Demography at the Department of Economics at the University of Oslo. Her research interests include household forecasting, ageing and mortality. She completed her master’s degree in economics at the University of Oslo in 2009.
Praveen Kumar Pathak
Supervisor: Raya Muttarak
Co-Supervisor: Valeria Bordone
Research Project: Social Networks and Fertility Behavior Among Women in Rural Uttar Pradesh, India
Abstract: Uttar Pradesh remains the most populous state of India in the 21st century. Although fertility has declined across several Indian states in the 1970s, with varying historical points of onset and pace of decline, women in Uttar Pradesh, on average, still bear around four children in their reproductive lifetime due to the interplay of a complex set of demographic, socio-economic and cultural factors. However, apart from investigating the standard set of socioeconomic factors, little attempt has been made in the past to examine the role of diffusion on precipitating fertility change in the Indian context in general, and Uttar Pradesh in particular. Understanding the mechanism of diffusion through social networks in influencing fertility change may be crucial from a policy perspective. Using ego-centric social network data of more than 500 currently married women (18-35 years), my work at IIASA as a Young Scientist participant focuses on investigating the relationships between informal social interactions with network partners and childbearing and fertility experiences of women in Uttar Pradesh. In addition, I will also examine the association between informal social interactions with network partners on matters of family planning and use of contraceptive methods. Furthermore, the study plans to test available and alternative measurement methods of social interactions effects in order to generate robust measures. The study will also discuss the potential policy relevant issues and its wider implications emerging from the present research
Biographical Sketch: Praveen Pathak is an Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of Pune, India. He is also pursuing a PhD from the International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India since April, 2008 under the supervision of Prof. Faujdar Ram. His research interests are social networks and demographic behavior; socioeconomic inequalities in population, nutrition and health; geospatial analysis of demographic/health outcomes. He completed undergraduate studies in Geography and English Literature from Ewing Christian College at the University of Allahabad in 2004. He also completed postgraduate studies in Geography from the Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India in 2006. He earned his MPhil degree in Population Studies from the International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India in 2008.
Joshua Ramos
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
Co-Supervisor: Marcin Stonawski
Research Project: An Analysis of Religious Conversion and Secularization, with its Application in Demographic Projections of Religion
Abstract: Since the last four decades, we wave witnessed an era of global resurgence in every major world civilizational religion that has effected a striking increase in religious influence within the public sphere and dominant global political structures. (Toft, Philpott, Shah 2011) Due to a combination of higher fertility rates, migration trends and the intergenerational transmission of values of those who are religious, it is projected that there may occur a stalling and possible reversal of secularization within the United States and Europe around 2050. (Kaufmann, Skirbekk 2012) Within this context of the resurgence of religion, the goal of this research project is an analysis within a global perspective of religious conversions and secularization and its overall impact on population dynamics, with the intent to use these findings to create scenarios for the Pew-IIASA religion model, and apply them as case studies for specific countries and regions, using data to interpret and project value changes that focus on the cultural character and religious composition of secularized societies. This research hopes to contribute to the current discussion within political demography that highlights the pronatalism of religious conservatives or fundamentalists in contrast to the low fertility of the non-religious or seculars, and how this growth in religious population may provide a countervailing force to secularization by reason of intergenerational transmission, thus challenging liberal values and engendering further ‘culture wars’ in secularized societies
Biographical Sketch: Joshua Ramos is a third year doctoral candidate in Religious Studies in the Joint PhD Program in Religious Studies at the University of Denver and Iliff School of Theology, whose research interests include political theology, religion and global affairs. He graduated from Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary in 2009 with a Master’s degree in Religious Studies, and has studied at Harvard Divinity School and Boston College (2007-2008).
2012
Angan Sengupta
Supervisor: Samir KC
Co-Supervisor: Anne Goujon
Research Project: Projecting the Potential of the Demographic Dividend of India: Is there Enough Reason to be Optimistic?
Abstract: Debates are floating around the emergence of demographic dividend in India in recent times. There are two views: optimist and pessimist, regarding the potential impacts of this working age population on economic growth, which has largely been unexplored. India is going to be the largest contributor to the global demographic transition. Declining fertility rate along with a fall in infant and child mortality rate for last few years is resulting in an increase in proportion of the working age people in Indian population. It has been found that even today the fertility rate has been very high among less educated and lower socio-economic stratum people, with high but declining mortality rates. According to Demographic Transition Theory, it is most likely that there will be a high representation of these under-privileged people within the young working age population of India in near future. A mixed trend in the female labour force participation and falling juvenile sex ratio in recent years surely increase the ambiguity over the composition and characteristics of the future working age population of India. During this research our objective is to examine the age-sex composition of the population by background characteristics across states and to explore the potential of working age population, employing multi-state population projection techniques and econometric methods. In this study, we will utilize the data provided by the Census of India and various sample surveys. This research hopes to contribute to the policy interventions regarding the development of human resource and appropriate involvement of the labour-force in order to utilize the demographic dividend ensuring economic growth of India.
Biographical Sketch: Angan graduated with Economics from Calcutta University, India in 2006 and with Population Studies from International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), India in 2008. He is currently a third year PhD scholar in Population Research Centre at Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bangalore, India. Angan is registered as an external PhD student in School for Public Health and Primary Care (CAPHRI) at the Maastricht University, Netherlands. Title of his doctoral thesis is ‘Double Burden of Malnutrition in India: Macro and Micro Perspectives’. His research interests include Fertility, Health, Environmental and Development Economics.
Collin Payne
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson
Research Project: Health Transitions and Social Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract: Though the median age most of SSA is still quite young, early-life mortality declines, combined with slowing rates of fertility and persistently high rates of HIV, are expected to cause rapid population aging in upcoming decades (Heuveline 2004, Cohen & Menken 2006, Zaba et al. 2004). However, little research to date has addressed aging process in this resource-poor environment and even less is known about the protective role of social capital factors in this context. Gaining micro-level insight into the potentially protective role of social capital context would also provide invaluable information to conduct advanced cohort-component projections of this population. Using a multi-state life table (MSLT) approach, I will analyze the processes of mortality and disability using micro-level data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH). My analysis will use a logistic discrete-time hazard model to calculate rates of transitioning between health statuses, and generate MSLT functions from these transition rates through micro simulation. My work as an IIASA Young Scientist participant will extend this model by investigating the micro-level impact of social capital factors on the aging process in this context. Existing methodologies for MSLT calculation using longitudinal data are not able to incorporate time-varying co variates into analysis. In the context of SSA, time-varying factors such as HIV status, presence of adult children (and their HIV status), marital status, and agricultural profits may be key for healthy aging. My IIASA project will incorporate time-varying factors into this MSLT model using a simultaneous equations approach to limited dependent variable modeling. In my time at IIASA I propose to further develop and apply this method for incorporating time-varying co variates into MSLT calculation, and analyze how these co variates may reduce/delay disability onset and increase survivorship.
Biographical Sketch: Collin is currently a second-year PhD student in Demography at the University of Pennsylvania. His substantive research interests include health and mortality in the US and sub-Saharan Africa, HIV and sexual networks, and processes of aging and disability. Collin’s methodological work centers on multistate life table methodology, formal demography, multilevel modeling, and Bayesian estimation methods. He completed his undergraduate studies at the University of Wisconsin in Sociology and Quantitative Analysis in 2008.
Sam Hyun Yoo
Supervisor: Bilal Barakat
Co-Supervisor: Tomas Sobotka
Research Project: Research Project: Impact of Female Education on the Process of Childbearing Postponement and Recuperation in South Korea
Abstract: Many countries in Europe and East Asia have experienced low or very low fertility over the past several decades. Research has pointed out an increase in childbearing age as one main cause of low fertility. This is partly due to social changes: an improvement in female education, continuing gender inequality and economic insecurities. There is an ongoing debate on whether low fertility is a temporary phenomenon due to the shift of childbearing to later age that will eventually stall, or a permanent decline in the number of children. It is also not clear to what extent female education contributes to the postponement and recuperation process of childbearing. Despite numerous studies on low fertility, the situation in East Asia is much less understood due to geographical distance and cultural difference from Europe. With Census and birth registration data, this project provides a better understanding of fertility trends in South Korea and analyzes the contribution of women’s education to the process of childbearing postponement and recuperation. The result of this project is expected to demonstrate whether the process of childbearing postponement and recuperation in East Asia has a similar pattern to those of European countries.
Biographical Sketch: Sam is currently a third year PhD student in Sociology at Arizona State
University, Tempe, Arizona. He graduated from Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea, with a Bachelor’s degree in Sociology. He completed a Master’s degree in Sociology in 2007 from the same university. His work primarily focuses on changes in fertility intention and fertility behavior. His research interests also cover family relations, migration, reproductive health and social networks.
2011
Yang Li
Supervisor: Nikola Sander and Bilal Barakat
Research Project: Determining the Spatial-temporal Patterns of Interprovincial Migration in China, 1985-2005
Abstract: My summer research will focus on the determinants and spatial structure of interprovincial migration in China, and how they have changed over the period 1985-2005. To fulfill this objective, my proposed study will be carried out using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and spatial interaction models. Firstly, I will use GIS-ESDA to establish the spatial structure of interregional migration in China during the period 1985-2005. The key origins and destinations of migrants and changes over time will be identified. Secondly, I apply the widely-accepted factors on migration such as distance, the economic level, education level, living conditions, job opportunities, etc, with a multiple stepwise regression model to a cross-sectional time series data set, which consists of the interprovincial migration flows over last two decades in China. It is expected that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China, and they can be decomposed into push and pull factors. Economic factors such as income may have become more important factors shaping China’s interprovincial migration, due to the economic transition period in China after the late 1970s. Thirdly, through determining the changes in migration spatial structure and its determinants, I intend to impose Morkov chain models to forecast the spatial distribution of migrants and determinants on interprovincial migration in China until 2020 based on the previous data and different policy scenarios. Finally, I will discuss the impacts of different factors on interprovincial migration and the policy implications of these factors for future population projections. Taking China's interprovincial migration during the period 1985-2005 as a case study, the proposed research helps to understand the mechanisms of migration determinants for internal migration. Moreover, my study will provide references for development planners and policy-makers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.
Biographical Sketch: Yang graduated from Beijing Normal University, China, in July 2008 with a Bachelor’s degree in GIS. She is currently a first-year PhD student at the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The title of her thesis is “Determining the spatial-temporal patterns of interprovincial migration in China, 1985- 2005”. Her main fields of scientific research include migration, GIS and geosimulation.
Anastasia Emelyanova
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson
Research Project: Estimating a Rapidly Graying Population of Circumpolar Russia: Cross-Regional Analysis
Abstract: Although a great deal of research has been done on aging in the Russian Federation, very little has been done on its Arctic population (Arctic Human Development Report 2009, where conditions are generally quite different from the rest of Russia. My YSSP research aims to reduce this gap in knowledge by focusing on aging in the circumpolar territories of Russia. There are 3 practical tasks to be done in this study: (1) to compute and analyze selected ‘aging’ indicators comparing conventional aging measures with 'prospective' ones (Sanderson, Scherbov, 2008); (2) to devise new measures of aging based on epidemiological data, and (3) to devise possible policies on a basis of my findings in (1) and (2) above. I expect the last point to be particularly challenging because the Russian North has few resources for adjusting to the consequences of population aging and has given aging a rather low policy priority. Available epidemiological characteristics of northern residents will supplement the profiles of health and wellbeing of populations across the chosen regions. The work will be based on data collected beforehand from Goskomstat and ArcticStat meta-databases as well as annual regional official publications.
Biographical Sketch: Anastasia holds a Master’s degree in Health Sciences awarded by the University of Oulu (Finland) in 2010. Born in Arkhangelsk (Russia), Anastasia’s background has a long focus on social issues, since she received her first diploma of higher education in social work at Pomor State University (2008) where she now serves as a tutor and assistant lecturer. Taking part in courses of International Institute on Aging (UN, Malta), Anastasia devoted her MA thesis to population aging, its demographical aspects and northern specificity. In this particular field her interests lie in the sphere of health and wellbeing in old age, aging indicators, its projections and policy planning within the Circumpolar area. Anastasia plans to continue the project within one of the doctoral programs she currently is being considered as an applicant.
Ethan Matthew Jennings Sharygin
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson
Research Project: Impact of Social and Demographic Changes on Population Projections in China
Abstract: The demographic consequences of low fertility combined with a very high sex ratio in China are still poorly understood, decades after they first appeared in tabulations from the China 1990 Census. Partly, this is due to the novelty of female scarcity; most of the marriage squeeze literature previously published examined cases of male shortage after conflicts, and in contexts of abovereplacement fertility. Although the first cohorts of males to be affected by double-squeeze on the marriage market are already born, population projection methods can play an important role in understanding the potential consequences of a variety of behavioral responses. My proposed contribution is an analysis of the ways in which marriage sorting behaviors including educational hypergamy interact with changing patterns of educational attainment to affect demographic dynamics. To this end, the research project at IIASA will build upon a previously validated cohort component population projection model for China that incorporates a marriage model and analytic models of the marriage squeeze. The marriage matching algorithm will be enhanced in order to incorporate the empirical marriage matching frameworks (Choo-Siow) and to model the consequences of patterns of increases in educational attainment in China that might be anticipated in the future. A possible output of this research is a new population forecast for China that takes the interaction of the relative scarcity of women and the educational attainment of men and women into account.
Biographical Sketch: Ethan is currently a third year PhD student in Demography at the University of Pennsylvania. His research interests include marriage markets, sex ratios, low fertility, and the demographic squeeze in China. His dissertation chapters address trends in health and mortality and consequences of high sex ratios in Central and East Asia. Ethan completed his undergraduate studies at the University of Washington in Economics and Chinese in 2003. He completed Master's degrees in Public Policy and East Asia Studies at the University of California, Berkeley in 2006.