POP YSSP 2006-2010
2010
Ling Liu
Supervisor: Gui-Ying Cao / Wolfgang Lutz
Research Project: Assessing Urban Demography and Economic Growth Impacts on Land Use in the Coastal City Cluster
Abstract: Recent decades, land-use patterns have been greatly affected by the urban expansion along with China's economic growth and internal migration, in particular the coastal region. By selecting Yangtze River Delta, my work focused on analyzing the urban land expansion in coastal city clusters from 1990 to 2005, trying to look at the major questions: 1) to explore how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the urban land use change in Yangtze River Delta City Cluster; 2) to explore the range, speed, and regional differences among various kinds of land-use change; 3) to forecast the further urban land-use at medium term in selection region. In this study, the statistical analysis and land-use dynamics model were used, the data base of study included 4 resources: Land use map; land use planning map; population census, and economic data at regional and national levels.
Biographical Sketch: Ling graduated in July 1996 from the Zhengzhou Surveying and Mapping College, China, with a Master’s degree in Cartography. She is currently a staff at Shandong Audit Office, and also, a third-year Ph.D. student at the Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, China Academy of Sciences. Title of her thesis is “Assessing urban demography and economic growth impacts on land use in the Coastal City Cluster”. Her main fields of scientific research include Spatial-data Mining and Visualization.
Doris Anita Oberdabernig
Supervisor: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
Research Project: Economic Growth and Education: Do the Effects Differ Across Regime Types?
Abstract: One of the United Nations Millennium Goals is the objective of universal primary education until 2015. A large number of studies has already been conducted about the importance of education for economic growth (see Klasen (2002), Prichett (2001), Barro (2001), Gylfason (2001), Krueger and Lindahl (2001) for examples), sometimes with ambiguous results. As already pointed out by Helliwell (1994), education plays an important role in enabling the choice of a democratic form of government. This study is organized into two parts. In the first part we take a closer look on potentially different effects of education on economic growth, conditional on regime type, demographics and stage of economic development. We estimated region subsamples to find out if there is a systematic difference in the effect of schooling in different parts of the world and tested for robustness. In the second part we tried to investigate how education affects the transition from an autocratic regime to a democratic form of government and analyse how long this kind of transition usually takes.
Biographical Sketch: Doris graduated in November 2008 from the University of Innsbruck, Austria. She holds Master degrees in Political Economy and in International Economics and Business Sciences. In fall 2009 she started a joint Ph.D program of the Universities of Linz and Innsbruck in Economics. Doris is writing her thesis about “Empirical Studies on Economic Development”. Her current research mainly explores issues related to development economics, program evaluation and economic growth, for which she applies econometric methods. Her research plan during the YSSP is to investigate how education and demographics translate into economic growth.
Preeti Preeti
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson / Anne Goujon
Research Project: Forecasting Longevity Improvements in India
Abstract: My summer research focused on the analysis of future longevity increases in India and its major states. Forecasts were made by age, sex, urban/rural residence and state. To fulfill this objective, my proposed study wasl carried by reviewing methods of forecasting old age mortality rates and life expectancy, analyzing past mortality trends with special focus on advance age and applying an appropriate method to project the mortality changes and life expectancy at older ages. Indicators such as mortality risk, remaining life expectancy, life expectancy lost, and the annual rate of mortality improvement were used to study the trends of mortality change. Data from Sample Registration System by Registrar General of India (1971-2007) were used. One major challenge in this proposed research was finding an appropriate method for projecting old age mortality. To overcome this problem, projection methods were applied to past data and the consistency of the results was checked with observed data.
Biographical Sketch: Preeti graduated from M.J.P. Rohilkhand University, Bareilly, India in 2006 with a master degree in Mathematics. She completed M.Phil. in Population Studies in 2007 and currently a second year Ph.D. student of Population Studies at International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India. Title of her thesis is Longevity improvement, employment and support system for graying population in India. Her main fields of scientific interest include mathematical demography, public health and gender issues.
Sergey Timonin
Supervisor: Serguei Scherbov
Research Project: Cartographic Analysis and Visualization of Demographic Data, Particularly Multistate Population Projections
Abstract: A rapid growth in interest in the addition of a spatial perspective to population research can be seen in recent years. It is caused by many factors among which are the availability of georeferenced data and the development of geographical information systems (GIS) that supply us with a wide range of tools to gather, organize, analyze and visualize of demographic data within a spatial context. Cartographical visualization allows displaying spatial distribution of the studied characteristics and phenomena. The general objective of my research during the YSSP was application of cartographic methods and means for presenting of likely future size and structure of the population at different spatial levels. This research intended to borrow existing cartographic methods and try to modify them in accordance with the specific of data. Besides traditional approaches, recently developed methods of spatial visualization are of great interest. Among them are cartograms (anamorphoses), animation, 3-D visualization, multimedia, etc. Besides this I produced population projections for Russia and particularly its regions up to 2050.
Biographical Sketch: Sergey graduated from the Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia) in 2009. He holds a master’s degree in Cartography and GIS. He is currently a first-year Ph.D. student at Lomonosov Moscow State University (Laboratory of integrated mapping). The title of his thesis is «Atlas informational system “Demography of Russia”». He also works as a junior research scientist in the Centre of social demography and economic sociology, Russian Academy of Sciences. His research interests involve socio-economic mapping, spatial analysis with application of GIS, population geography and spatial demography.
Alma Celina Vega
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
Research Project: A Demographic Overview of Mexican Immigrant Retirement Migration from the U.S.
Abstract: The number of Latino elders in the United States is projected to increase substantially over the next half century. Mexicans comprise a large proportion of these elders. Over half of Latinos 60 years and older in the United States are of Mexican heritage. Of particular importance is where this population decides to retire. A large proportion of Mexican-origin elders in the U.S. are foreign-born and many times, have the option to retire in Mexico or in the United States. This decision can have significant economic consequences in the U.S. given their substantial use of certain public programs, such as Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid. This study attempted to understand the characteristics of Mexican immigrant elders who remain in the U.S. upon reaching old age and those who return migrate. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP), this study examined the migration histories, health outcomes, familial characteristics, living arrangements, and employment status of Mexican immigrants who remain the in the U.S. in old age and those who return migrate.
Biographical Sketch: Alma graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles, School of Public Health in June of 2007. She is currently a second-year doctoral student in the department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley. The title of her dissertation is The Demography of Mexican Retirement Migration from the U.S. Her main fields of interest are U.S.- Mexico migration, retirement behavior, and immigrant health.
2009
Zakarya Al Zalak
Supervisor: K.C. Samir
Research Project: Stochastic Population Projections: A suggested methodology and applied study for Syria 2004-2029
Abstract: Population projections, at the national as well as regional levels, are considered one of the main tools for policy makers in planning and decision-making processes. For a good quality population projection, the projection should be based on sound scientific methodology and reliable and quality data. My proposed research had three parts; firstly, to produce a population projection by age and sex for Syria during the period 2004-2029 using a cohort component method with three different scenarios based on future assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration; secondly, to extend the projection by adding the educational component and projecting the population by age, sex and education into the future and; finally, to produce a probabilistic projection for Syria by age and sex.
Biographical Sketch: Zakaraya graduated in 2002 from Damascus University, Faculty of Economy. He holds two Master degrees; one in Operations Research from Damascus University (2005) and the second from the Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University (2006). He is currently a second-year Ph.D. student, the title of his Ph.D. thesis is “Stochastic population projections: a suggested methodology”.
Marta Jankowska
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
Research Project: Spatial Population Projections Compared Across Developing and Developed Cities
Abstract: The United Nations projects that by 2030 five billion people will live in cities, and 81% of these people, or around four billion, will be located in the developing world. The intense expansion of third world urban centers is happening without concurrent infrastructure or resource development to support growing populations. As a result, the progressive status of cities as places of lower fertility, accessibility, and better health is being eroded away in developing nations. Yet the significant factors that are influencing population growth – fertility, migration, mortality, and education – do not occur equally throughout the space of a developing world city. Preconceived notions of slums and urban settlement suggest that population growth is highest in the peri-urban fringe, and the most slum like areas of a city. But are these assumptions correct? Understanding the spatiality of population growth in third world cities may have significant implications for planning and development projects, and for future public works. This project proposed to examine the Greater Accra Region in Ghana to understand how population growth is occurring within the city and around the urban fringe. It utilized data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and the Ghana Census to examine past population growth in and around Accra, focusing on the spatial aspects of population change. The project then turned to projecting population by location with methods developed by the World Population Program at IIASA, and mapping the spatial aspects of population growth in Accra.
Biographical Sketch: Marta will graduate from San Diego State University with a master’s in Geography in May of 2009. Her thesis is titled “Neighborhoods of health: using AMOEBA to draw neighborhood boundaries in Accra, Ghana”. She will begin her Ph.D. studies in Geography at the joint San Diego State, University of California Santa Barbara doctoral program in the fall of 2009. Her main research interests are place effects on health, spatial demographics, clustering algorithms, NGO networks, and spatial collaboration.
Elke Loichinger
Supervisor: Bilal Barakat
Research Project: Age-specific Human Capital Projections for the Labor Market
Abstract: The general objective of my research project was to quantify the possible effects of population aging on labor supply and human capital investment. Existing projections for the labor market in Europe focus on the quantity of future labor potential, not taking into account the fact that future cohorts will vary in their educational attainment compared to current workers. For my research project I constructed human capital projections for the labor market by combining age-specific educational attainment projections with projections of labor force participation, for several selected European countries. I calculated two scenarios: one assuming that time-allocation decisions (between education, employment and leisure) are exogenous to the model, and one where they are as assumed to be endogenous, using a dynamic overlapping generations model (OLG).
Biographical Sketch: Elke graduated in 2004 from the University of Regensburg, Germany (major: geography, minors: political science and statistics) and 2007 from Duke University, USA (Master of Public Policy). She is currently a third-year Ph.D student at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. In her thesis, she analyses present and future labor force potential and labor utilization within several selected countries, focusing on age-specific differences. Her main research interests are the challenges and opportunities demographic change poses for the labor market.
2008
Zack Almquist
Supervisor: K.C. Samir/Andrew Noymer
Research Project: Educational Differential in Demographics
Abstract: Zack plans on using the back projection data set that IIASA in conjunction with VID has produced for 120 countries covering the years 2000-1970*, which contain data on the countries by age, sex, and level of educational attainment in five year increments. The data will then be used to look at the structural effects of different education rates on the demography (fertility, mortality, and migration) of the countries. I also plan to model the effect of education on the population of a number of different countries through simulation based on the stochastic model (multi-state method) used to generate the back projections. The goal of the simulations will be to produce different realistic population changes the World may see in the next several decades to attain various upper and lower bounds for educational attainment in near and distant future for its policy implications. *(Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon, Samir K.C. and Warren Sanderson, Reconstruction of populations by age, sex and level of educational attainment for 120 Countries, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2007, pp. 193-235)
Biographical Sketch: Zack graduated in 2008 from the University of California-Irvine (UCI) with an MA in Demography and Social Analysis, in 2007 from Northwestern University with an MS in Statistics, and in 2005 from the University of Oregon Robert D Clark Honors College with a BS in Mathematics with departmental honors. In the fall he will begin pursuing a Ph.D. in Sociology at UCI.
Monika Sawhney
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
Research Project: Predicting Achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with Possible Changes in Education, Fertility and Gender Disparity in Developing Countries
Abstract: Strong relationship between education, health, fertility choices and overall development of the population has been well documented in the recent past. Education has been given due importance in the Millennium Development Goals – where five of the eight goals are related to education. Women’s education has multi-faceted benefits, not only does it impact the well-being of her family, it also empowers her in making important decisions regarding health care and fertility. Many countries in South East Asia have recently experienced substantial economic growth. Subsequent improvement on the health and overall development is not at par with the fast economic development. There also exists strong preference for a “male” child in some of these countries which has a deep impact on the overall development of the population. My proposed research deals with issues related to education, fertility, human capital and health issues of the global population. I propose to conduct in-depth research which weaves together issues that are important for timely achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Using simulations I plan to predict levels of development required for each of the key areas (health, education, fertility, and social development) for regions/countries to be able to meet the MDGs.
Biographical Sketch: Monika completed her master’s in Social Work from Maharaja Sayajirao University – Baroda, Gujarat, India and a second master’s in Human Resources Development from Academy of Human Resources Development – Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Presently she is a doctoral candidate at Tulane University – School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana. Her dissertation is titled “Health Systems Efficiency and gender disparity in child health in India” and is looking at determinants of child health and gender disparity across 25 states in India. Monika’s research interests include working in the area of International Health (issues related to child and maternal health and gender inequality in health status) primarily in developing countries.
Pavlo Shevchuk
Supervisor: Serguei Scherbov
Research Project: Projection of Population Educational Level for Ukraine
Abstract: The decline in population numbers and increase in population aging in Ukraine are intensifying the problem of population quality (education and health) and the importance of human capital. Low fertility in recent years has meant a reduction in the size of youngest cohorts which, when these cohorts reach adulthood, will lead to significant changes in the economic and social fabric of the country. Schools are facing the problem of a smaller number of students, and this will, in the very near future, also affect colleges and universities. As a result the higher education enrolment ratio will increase notably. After that, smaller cohorts will enter the labour market. The important questions are: (1) will these cohorts receive much more education than previous cohorts? (2) will they be able to support of the increase in number of retired people? (3) how might rapidly increasing education influence the future fertility of the cohorts born from 1997 to 2005? and therefore (4) will increasing education lead to subsequent decreasing fertility and aging? The situation will also be complicated by competition over human resources with neighbouring more developed countries. This situation is prevalent in the majority of East European countries.
Biographical Sketch: Pavlo graduated in Geography from the Taras Shevchenko Kyiv’s National University, Ukraine in 1997. He is working as a Research Fellow at the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. His main fields of scientific interest include forecasting of population dynamics, distribution of population by education level and probabilistic forecasting of changes in professional skills, influence of environment pollution (especially soil and drinking water) on mortality level and reproductive health.
2007
Naomi Aoki, Syracuse, New York
Department of Public Administration, Maxwell School of Syracuse University
Email:
Linking global initiatives with local actions in an aging society: The case of Phnom Penh Province in Cambodia
Abstract: This study projects the distributions of sub-national demands for public services for the elderly in seven districts in Phnom Penh province of Cambodia, utilizing multi-state demographic methods. Demand for public services is measured by the number of vulnerable elderly who are at risk of poverty if there were no policy interventions. Preliminary results show the coefficient of variation (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) of the shares of vulnerable elderly across districts is projected to increase by 6 percent from 1998 to 2018 for females, while it decreases by 125 percent for males. This indicates that variations in the magnitude of demand for services for females will increase, while it will decrease for males, holding other factors constant. This study uses scientific analysis to study the effects of possible UN policies advocating a localized approach to distributing public services to the vulnerable elderly.
Biographical Sketch: Originally from Japan, Naomi received her M.A. in 2003 from The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C. She is currently a first-year Ph.D. student at The Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University (Department of Public Administration). Her thesis examines the interactions between demographic change, the magnitude of local demands for public services, and (de)centralization of public services delivery.
Nikola Sander, Brisbane, Australia
School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, The University of Queensland
Email:
The Effects of Age, Period and Cohort on Retirement Migration in Australia.
Abstract: In Australia internal migration of the retirement-aged population has become an important phenomenon. Retirement migration not only alters local population age structures, it also has social and economic effects on both origin and destination regions. In the presented study three parameters are used to identify age profiles of origindestination specific migration flows with a retirement peak: 1) the Gross Migraproduction Rate for the retirement age groups (55-59, 60-64, 65-69 years) to measure migration intensity, 2) an Index of Peakedness (a relative measure), and 3) an absolute measure of the area under the peak. In a second step, the migration probabilities of retirement migration flows are entered in an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Model, which is used to disentangle the effects of age, period and cohort on migration. The results show that age and cohort have different effects on retirement migration flows compared to jobrelated mobility of the working-age population.
Biographical Sketch: Nikola graduated in Geography from the Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Germany in 2005. She is currently a second year Ph.D. student at the School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. The title of her thesis is “Retirement Migration in Australia, 1976-81 to 1996-01”. Her main fields of scientific interest include human migration, in particular retirement- and amenity-driven migration in the context of population ageing and the Baby Boom, economic geography, spatio-temporal GIS and quantitative methods.
Edward Spang, Medford, Massachusetts
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Email:
Searching for the “Soft Path”: System dynamics for improved water management in Barbados
Abstract: As a water scarce nation, Barbados has suffered numerous water crises in drought years, forcing the island to import water from neighboring islands, and eventually leading to the construction of a large desalination plant. However, both of these solutions are expensive, resource-intensive and supply-based responses. These qualities are in direct conflict with “Soft Path” water management, as defined by Peter Gleick, where water management solutions should be more decentralized, efficient and demand-oriented. With tourism representing a critical sector of the economy, Barbados must manage its water carefully to meet the needs of the local population as well as the fluctuating number of tourists – a challenge common to many Small Island Developing States (SIDS). While increased tourism represents a demand-side pressure on freshwater resources, it may also serve as a potential solution to the problem. This study uses system dynamics methodology to help identify potential “soft path” policy opportunities for improved water resource management in Barbados.
Biographical Sketch: Edward graduated in 2006 from the Fletcher School (Tufts University, Boston, USA) with a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy, focusing on Development Economics and International Environment and Resource Policy. He is currently a second year Ph.D. student at the Fletcher School. His main fields of scientific interest include water resource management, poverty alleviation and the specific vulnerabilities of small island states.
2006
Marcin Stonawski/Poland
Email:
Influence of Workforce Ageing on Human Capital Formation
Abstract: The research question focused upon as how workforce ageing influences theh human capital (HC) formation and the future productivity growth. The method used focuses on the magnitude of HC accumulated in a person. It takes into consideration education, acquiring knowledge and experience, knowledge becoming obsolete or forgotten, as well as the impact of health. The estimated productivity curve (based on the net effect of the various determinants of HC) has the shape of an inverted U-shaped profile. Consequences of the workforce ageing can be considered in the short and in the long term. In the short-term the accumulated HC could increase if welleducated workers from large cohorts reach the age in which their HC is the highest. However, in the long-term, a decrease in aggregate HC is expected because the working-age population shrinks. This could also affect economic growth levels in the future.
Biosketch: Marcin Stonawski/Poland: Marcin graduated from Cracow University of Economics in 2002 with a M.Sc in Management. He is currently employed as an assistant at the Department of Demography at Cracow University of Economics. His doctoral thesis focused on the issue of human capital and productivity in the context of population ageing in Poland.
His main fields of scientific interest are: process of population ageing and its socio-economic consequences, ageing of labour force and adjustment of companies and institutions to the future changes on the labour market. At IIASA he will be working on issues of the influence of workforce ageing on human capital resources and productivity.