POP YSSP 2015-2020
2020
Milan Das
International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai, India
Supervisor: Michaela Potancokova, Co-Supervisor: Erich Striessnig
Research Project: Educational differences in timing and quantum of fertility in India: A cohort approach
Abstract: The postponement of childbearing in the early reproductive age is widespread among women with higher levels of education. India has currently experienced a significant decline in fertility driven by the shifts in the timing of childbearing and by reduction of higher-order births among uneducated women. A large body of research has been focused on women’s education and fertility, but these studies remain restricted to period analyses of fertility change. Only a few studies have examined cohort fertility trends in India. One specific question that has yet to be investigated is how completed cohort fertility differs with respect to age at entry into motherhood and whether an improvement in girl’s educational attainment played a role in the delay of first motherhood and in cohort fertility decline. Thus, it is necessary to understand the relationship between the timing of childbearing and women’s education across subsequent births cohorts. Therefore, studies of the actual fertility experience of women with their educational level born in different calendar years are needed. Using the retrospective birth histories of women born in1943 to 1976, I aim to study differences in completed cohort fertility and timing of childbearing by educational attainment of these women. The analysis will make use of the four rounds of the National Family Health Survey of India conducted in 1992-2016. Understanding the cohort completed fertility considering timing and female education would produce more precise estimates and will help us to better understand the postponement of birth by parity of women in recent fertility decline.
Biographical sketch: Milan graduated in Geography from The University of Burdwan, India in 2013. He is currently a 3rd year doctoral candidate at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai, India, where he also earned a Master’s degree in Population Studies. His PhD thesis is entitled “Understanding the Socioeconomic and Proximate Determinants of Fertility Decline in India”. His main research interests lie in the study of fertility change in India, education and fertility, use of contraceptives, abortion, and spatial demography.
Lisa Thalheimer
University of Oxford
Supervisor: Reinhard Mechler (RISK), Co-Supervisor: Raya Muttarak
Research Project: Attributing disaster displacement to anthropogenic climate change in East Africa
Abstract: Displacement triggered by natural hazards and extreme weather events (disaster displacement) is estimated to account for 72% of all new internal displacements in 2019; the remaining 18% is associated with conflict and violence. Increased human mobility, voluntary and involuntary, is often portrayed as a key impact of anthropogenic climate change. Yet, causal, quantitative evidence on such links remains sparse and suffers from disciplinary hurdles. Mobility decisions, when not as a reactive response to extreme weather events, i.e. sudden displacement, are multi-causal and rarely due to climatic stress alone. With anthropogenic climate change, push and pull factors of human mobility may change significantly. However, whether and to what extent it will change is unknown. With increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather, affected populations could run out of resources enabling them to migrate. Broader policy questions arise: How can we develop and increase adaptive capacity in regions vulnerable to climate change impacts? Bringing together Probabilistic Event Attribution (PEA) and econometric methods, we will quantify the impacts of extreme weather events and displacement in East Africa, seeking to answer the question: Whether and to what extent did anthropogenic climate change alter the likelihood of extreme weather- related displacement? Modeling interaction channels of mobility drivers, the project runs the exact same calculation in a hypothetical scenario excluding anthropogenic emissions (PEA). The research results will support in the understanding of the role of anthropogenic climate change in disaster displacement and eventually inform debate on climate and migration policies.
Biographical sketch: Lisa is a DPhil (PhD) candidate at the University of Oxford. Her research focuses on quantifying the impacts of human mobility and extreme weather events, attributing the role of anthropogenic climate change. Her current research also spans multivariate models and forecast-based financing for humanitarian assistance. Lisa holds a MSc in Sustainability Management from Columbia University. Before beginning her doctoral studies, Lisa worked in a variety of roles on the linkages between the environment and inclusive growth at the World Bank and the IMF in Washington, D.C., and The Earth Institute in New York, NY.
Yingji Wu
Asian Demographic Research Institute at Shanghai University
Supervisor: Dilek Yildiz, Co-Supervisor: Samir KC
Research Project: Analysis of the education impact on China's sub-national population and human capital dynamics
Abstract: China’s population has increased from 0.56 Billion in 1950 to 1.37 billion by 2010, and China’s economic development benefits a lot from its large amount of high-quality labor force with basic education. However, the strict one-child policy, increasing of mother’s education, and cost of childbearing shaped a different trend of China population and human capital in the past decades. The fertility rate quickly declines after the 1970s and become below the replacement level in the 1990s. With the quick decline of fertility, the population aging progress and the labor force is declining much faster than other countries. The decline of fertility and population transition in the past three decades always gives the credit to China one-child policy by the Chinese family planning committee and many Chinese demographers, but the effect of educational expansion in the same period usually being neglected. Education is believed as one of the keys to China's economic development as well as the fertility decline. The candidate plans to analyze the impact of education on the past population and human capital dynamics both on the national and subnational levels. The understanding of education influence will be used to set scenarios for the multi-dimensional population and human capital projection model of China and further provide the suggestion for the policymaker to plan policies either to avoid or to change the undesirable future or to be prepared for the inevitable ones.
Biographical sketch: Yingji Wu is a 3rd year PhD student at Asian Demographic Research Institute at Shanghai University. He previously received a Master's degree in Sociology from Shanghai University. His current study mainly focuses on the educational impact on China’s population and human capital dynamics. Moreover, his research interest includes education policy and education development, population projections, and the relationship between education and demographic dynamics.
2019
Amr Abdelwahed
Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University in China
Research Project: Young People’s Migration Intention in Egyp
Supervisor: Raya Muttarak, Co-supervisor: Anne Goujon
Abstract: Youth constitutes one important engine of growth and development at the societal level. At the individual level, youth is when people’s personal beliefs and attitudes are shaped, leading to important life choices. The project aims to studying the characteristics of the youth in Egypt who changed migration intention during the period 2009-2014. The data come from the panel data survey of young people in Egypt for two years: 2009 and 2014, which correspond, to periods before and after the Egyptian revolution in 2011. The survey is the first of its kind in Egypt, conducted on youth of ages between 10 and 29 years. It focuses on key aspects of their lives including education, employment, health, family formation, migration, reproductive health, social issues, and civic/political participation.
Biographical sketch: Amr Abdelwahed is a second-year PhD student at the Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI) at Shanghai University in China. In 2016, he received his Master’s degree in Demography at Cairo University in Egypt. Amr is working as a teaching assistant at Institute of Statistical Studies and Research (ISSR) - Cairo University since 2013. Prior to his joining the ISSR, he worked for two years as a researcher in the national statistical office "CAPMAS" in Egypt. His main fields of research interest include international migration, child labor & its impact, and youth development. The title of his PhD thesis is “A Socio-Demographic Appraisal of the Causes and Consequences of International Migration from Egypt Today”.
Hélène M. Benveniste
Princeton University, USA
Research Project: Unpacking international migration assumptions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios
Supervisor: Raya Muttarak, Co-supervisor: Matthew Gidden (ENE)
Abstract: With climate change, migration patterns are expected to change, which might in turn significantly affect income levels and distributions, and to a lesser extent, greenhouse gas emissions. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways are scenarios representing five different narratives and combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. They offer projections of populations, GDP, inequality and greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. The five SSP population components reflect various migration assumptions. Yet those assumptions do not explicitly translate into other SSP components. In my project at YSSP, I unpack repercussions of six sets of international migration assumptions: one reflecting zero migration, and the five reflecting the SSP narratives. Using an innovative combination of a simple gravity model with income distributions and remittances, I transpose differentiated migration trajectories depending on income levels, into consistent sets of GDP, income inequalities and emissions components of the SSP. As a result, I provide a first stylized quantification of the effect of migration policies on GDP, inequalities and emissions levels, which can then be used to explore interactions between migration policies and climate policies.
Biographical sketch: Hélène is a third year Ph.D. student in Environmental Policy at Princeton University. In her dissertation, she focuses on interactions between climate damages, international migration and inequality, using Integrated Assessment Models. She is also interested in international environmental agreements design, and in communication between science and policymaking on climate change. Hélène graduated in 2012 with a MSc in Science and Executive Engineering from Mines ParisTech. For her master thesis at Colorado-based NCAR, she developed a statistical tool for scoring extreme climate events forecasts. She then started her career as deputy attaché for energy at the French Embassy in Germany. During the Paris Agreement year, she worked as research scientist on an expertise mission for the French government aimed at assessing countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions.
Asya Dimitrova
University of Glasgow, UK
Research Project: The future mortality burden of long-term exposure to air pollution in India
Supervisor: Guillaume Marois, Co-supervisor: Gregor Kiesewetter(AIR)
Abstract: Rapid socio-economic development in India has been accompanied by gains in life expectancy and improvements in a range of health outcomes. However, it is uncertain how the fast pace of urbanisation and climate change, associated with increases in ambient air pollution and temperature, will alter this trend in the future. Quantitative health impact assessments at sub-national level are needed to estimate the scale of these challenges and inform and contribute to the design of efficient and spatially explicit adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study aims to quantify the future mortality burden related to changes in ambient air pollution for urban and rural areas in all states in India up to 2050. A multidimensional cohort-component projection model will be employed to explore the range of potential health impacts under different scenarios for global cooperation on climate change and considering demographic changes. Future fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure will be derived from global integrated assessment models and air pollution models. Modeling the impacts of environmental exposures dynamically, by considering the changes in the mortality, size and structure of the population, and spatially, will yield more realistic estimates and reduce one of the main areas of uncertainty in projections of health impacts under future emission scenarios.
Biographical sketch: Asya Dimitrova is a second year Phd student at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and the University Pompeu Fabra. Her research focuses on the health impacts of changes in temperature and air pollution in India under climate change. She is particularly interested in incorporating the dynamics of global change, especially demographic and epidemiological change and urbanization, into estimations and projections of future health burdens related to climate change. Asya gained a M.A. in Economics and Mathematics from the University of Glasgow and graduated with a MSc. in Socio-ecological Economics and Policy, with specialization in demography and social policy, from the Vienna University of Business and Economics. Prior to starting her PhD, Asya has been working for five years as a research fellow at the Vienna Institute for Managing Sustainability.
Moradhvaj
Centre for the Study of Regional Development at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), India
Research Project: Education or Economic status? Comparing their relative Effect on Prime Age Adult Mortality in India using Longitudinal survey
Supervisor: Wolfgang Lutz, Co-supervisor: Nandita Saikia
Abstract: Improvement in the health status of the population is closely related to its level of socio-economic development. Several studies on adult mortality emphasized on the relationship between adult mortality and socio-economic status measured through importance of occupation, income, wealth and education. During the last 20th education attainment and economic status contributed significantly to raise the survival chance in the adult age group. Only few studies have conducted in-depth assessment of the relative importance education and economic status associated with the risk of adult death among the developing countries. Without longitudinal data, it is difficult to study the effect of education and economic status on the changing adult mortality. Using the longitudinal survey, this study aims conducting a thorough examination of the relative contribution of education and economic development on changing adult mortality in India. Individual level analysis will be done using data from a national sample of 132,116 Indian adults aged 15 years and above to examine their likelihood of death by their educational and economic status between wave 1 of the India Human Development Survey, conducted in 2004–05 and wave 2, conducted in 2011–12.
Biographical sketch: Moradhvaj is a third year PhD student at Centre for the Study of Regional Development at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi, India, Where he also completed his MPhil degree in population studies in 2016. Moradhvaj research interest includes mortality, morbidity, mathematical demography, health economics, gender and development. Prior to join JNU, Moradhvaj completed his Master degree in Population Studies form International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India. The title of his PhD thesis is “Changing Adult Mortality in India: Socio-Economic and Subnational Patterns”.
Paolo Vicerra
Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
Research Project: Physical, Psychological, and Cognitive Functioning: A Generalised Structural Equation Model
Supervisor: Sergei Scherbov, Co-supervisor: Wolfgang Lutz
Abstract: Studies on successful ageing usually involve dimensions of health. A number of these studies are on physical capacity and the presence of non-communicable diseases as the data is accessible from medical records, surveys, and clinical studies. Data tend to be limited for cognitive functioning and mental health. The literature that are present for those two health dimensions often involve clinical studies or community-based projects that have small samples. This study then aims to address this shortcoming in the literature by analysing cognitive health and its interaction with physical and mental health. The simultaneity is important because it offers perspective in understanding the prevalence of health distresses and their mutual interactions for an ageing population. The 2016 Population Change and Well-being in the Context of Aging Society (PCWAS) is used in this study. This is a representative survey of people aged 60 years and over in Thailand. Measures on the health dimensions will be created that are appropriate for the Thai context. The generalised structural equation modelling (GSEM) is employed for the analysis to determine the relationship of the three health aspects.
Bio-sketch: Paolo Vicerra is in the doctoral programme in demography at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand. He obtained his Master’s from the same university. Part of his undergraduate studies was done at Nihon University, Japan and was completed at the University of the Philippines. His research interests are ageing, population health, and disaster risk reduction and management.
2018
John Luke-Davidson Irwin
Pardee Rand Graduate School, USA
Research Project: Skills resilient to impending automation: The future of work
Supervisor: Anne Goujon, Co-supervisor: Asjad Naqvi (ASA)
Abstract: From automation to artificially intelligent algorithms, the landscape of the types of jobs that may or may not exist in the coming decades continue to transform. Professions that until recently were completely in the purview of humans have shifted into tasks that can be accomplished with minimal manual supervision. Rather than searching for which jobs will “disappear” as technological disruption continues, a role- and task-based approach to identify
which portions of jobs may be become automated will be performed to investigate professions that will be most resilient to technological disruption. Based on the identified jobs and skills, primary, secondary, and graduate level curricula will be assessed to determine where (or if) these capabilities are taught. Ecological systems methodologies and system mapping visualizations will be used to describe the connections, relationships, actors, and actions within the processes. This information, focused on the United States within an international context, will be useful to policymakers and academic institutions as they retrain currently displaced workforces, as well as reimagine the future of human work.
Biographical sketch: J. Luke Irwin graduated with a Master’s in Public Health in 2014 from the University of Texas Health Science Center. He also holds a B.S. in Neurobiology from the
University of Texas, with minors in Programming and Biomimicry. He is currently a second year Ph.D. student at the Pardee RAND Graduate school. His dissertation will focus on the impacts of accelerating technological disruption on the future workforce and on the future of work. His primary fields of scientific interest include complex social and policy systems, technological disruption, science policy, and long-term planning. His areas of research have included education, population health, international security and stability, workforce development, environmental stewardship, and sustainable energy.
Hyunjae Kang
State University of New York, Stony Brook (SUNY), USA
Research Project: Dynamics of interaction between human capital and demographic structure, and its effects on economic growth
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson
Abstract: Do changes in human capital precede changes in demographic structure as a factor of economic growth? Building on Cuaresma, Lutz and Sanderson (2014), this study investigates the dynamics of interaction between human capital and demographic structure, and its effects on economic growth using the case of South Korea. Specifically, I will
explore the details of the interaction dynamics. I am planning to analyze education policy changes associated with family policy and its effects on economic growth in different time periods between 1950s and 1990s. Given that it takes a long time for education policy changes to affect labor productivity (Lutz, Cuaresma and Sanderson 2008), I will have a close looker at the different lagged effects of education policy and family policy on economic growth. Combining different methods in economics and demography, I am going to approach the question with model simulations, counterfactual experiment, and population projection. This study uses time series data sets of economic growth, longitudinal data sets of different time data, and the demographic database of Wittgenstein Centre. With the simulation results of the calibrated model, I would like to investigate whether human capital indeed has been a driving factor of economic growth in different time periods.
Biographical sketch: Hyunjae Kang is a second-year PhD student in Economics at Stony Brook University. His research focuses on the intersection between Demographic economics and Labor economics. He previously received a BA in Economics (2016) from Stony Brook University, United States, and a BA in Political Science (2016) from Dongguk University, Republic of Korea.
Sonja Spitzer
Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) -> Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Austria
Research Project: Growing old, growing healthy: projecting multidimensional health expectancies for 13 European countries
Supervisor: Sergei Scherbov
Abstract: Chronological ageing is set to continue in Europe as a result of low fertility and greater longevity. We will live longer, but will we live healthier? We propose a multidimensional approach to capture the different phases and dimensions of disability and functional limitations at old age in 13 European countries. Instead of analysing one health indicator only, we will project a variety of health indicators measured in remaining years of life to better understand heterogeneities in the ageing process within and between countries. Prevalence rates of the following five measures will be forecasted: difficulties in activities of daily living (ADL) and in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), functional limitations of upper and lower extremity, and self-perceived health. Projections will be done separately by sex and five-year age groups starting at age 50. The analysis relies on representative data provided by SHARE, ELSA, and TILDA. Health expectancies will be calculated using the prevalence information from the survey data and Eurostat life tables applying Sullivan’s method. Following recent literature, we will model the ratios of specific health expectancies to general life expectancy and make forecasts based on United Nation population projections (WPP 2017). As shown for self-reported health status, we expect large heterogeneities in health expectancies depending on the health indicator and country observed.
Biographical sketch: Sonja Spitzer is a predoctoral researcher at the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) in the research group on population economics as well as a second
-year PhD student at the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU). She holds a Master's of Science in Economics and a Bachelor's degree in Economics and Socio-Economics, both from WU. She has also completed parts of her studies at the School of Economics and the Department of Political Economy at the University of Sydney, Australia. Her research aims to identify the special needs and wants at each life stage by empirically analysing economic and non-economic indicators such as consumption expenditure and self-reported health.
Ankita Srivastava
Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), India (Observer)
Research Project: Future scenario of disability burden in India and states
Supervisor: Guillaume Marois, Co-Supervisor: Nandita Saikia
Abstract: Throughout most developed and developing world, one of the most daunting issues deals with challenges raised by population aging. A rapid increase in life expectancy, especially at older ages, alongside unprecedented declines in fertility will soon lead to never before seen rates of population aging. Most of the research focused on the number of additional years a person is going to live but here I would be interested in the question of “How many years in the life of a person will be spent without disability, i.e. a Healthy Life?” Consequently, assisting elderly people in performing daily activities should be a major concern of public policy over the next few decades. Countries with a large population like India have a large number of people now aged 60 years or more and as per Census 2011. Out of the 1.21 billion inhabitants, about 26.8 million are ‘disabled’ which is 2.21% of the total population. Among the disabled population 56% (15 million) are males and 44% (11.8 million) are females. The disability prevalence varies in different age groups and urban-rural areas. There exists no systematic research on future trends of disability in India, although this poses crucial input for current and future human capital of India. For my YSSP project, I want to critically analyse the current burden of disability among older population in India across population subgroups. Further I am also interested in estimating trends for inhabitants living with disability by age, sex, education, region etc. Later on, I would apply these estimates to project multistate and multiregional disability outputs in India.
Biographical sketch: Ankita Srivastava has completed her MSc in Statistics (2011) later, she received her MSc in Population Studies (2014) and MPhil degree in Population Studies (2015) from International Institute of Population Sciences, Mumbai. Currently, she is a second year PhD student in the department of Center for the Study of Regional Development at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Her research interests span a broad range of topics in projections, aging, mortality and mathematical modelling of demographic data. Title of her thesis is “National and Sub-National Projections of Aging in India: A Probabilistic Approach”. She has attended many national and international conferences and workshops.
2017
Jeofrey Abalos
Australian National University
Research Project: Adult children’s education and parents’ health status in the Philippines
Supervisor: Daniela Weber, Co-Supervisor: Anne Goujon
Abstract: This research examines the influence of children’s education on the health status of their parents. There are various mechanisms by which children’s education influences parental health, including provision of better instrumental support, and transfer of both material and non-material resources. For example, well-educated children are more likely to give better care to their parents because they themselves are healthier, have more resources, and have more flexible jobs that enable them to provide practical assistance to their parents. They are also more knowledgeable about health-related information and more comfortable in navigating the health care system, which comes into play when children give
health-related advice to their parents or decide how to address the health problems of their parents. Highly educated children also tend to adopt healthier behavior and lifestyle, which in turn, can influence the health behaviors of their parents. Using the 2007 Philippine Study on Ageing (PSA) data, this study extends earlier research by investigating how Filipino children’s education influences their parents’ health status.
The Philippines provides a different context from previous studies mostly conducted in developed countries: it is a developing country, characterized by large family size, strong norms of intergenerational support, and the presence of a significant generational divide in terms of educational attainment. In this context, we would expect the impact of children’s education to be much stronger than that found in other settings. Given the high prevalence of overseas labor migration in the country, this study also explores whether the association between children’s education and their parents’ health status transcends eographical boundaries.
Biographical sketch: Jeofrey Abalos is a PhD candidate at the School of Demography in the Australian National University. He completed his Master in Population Studies degree at the University of the Philippines Population Institute. His research interests include population ageing, population health, union formation and union dissolution.
Olugbemisola Samuel
Covenant University
Research Project: Effects of air pollution on life expectancy outcomes of male and female adults population in selected West African countries
Supervisor: Samir K.C., Co-supervisor: Markus Wurzer
Abstract: Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average number of years a person is expected to live, based on the year of their birth, their current age, and other demographic factors including their sex. However, life expectancy for a particular group of persons or population depends on several variables such as their lifestyle, access to healthcare, diet, working conditions, natural disaster prevalence, and the relevant mortality and morbidity data. Most West African countries are victims of air pollutions that has shortened the life expectancies of the population. The average number of years lived by persons in most African countries is on the decline, due to some of the factors mentioned above. This study thus seeks to dentify those air pollutants affecting life expectancies in selected countries: Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia, and Burkina Faso. These countries were selected because of the availability of IPUMS data. This study will also explain the pattern of relationship that exists between each of the pollutants identified and the life expectancy outcomes of male and female population in these countries. The extent to which these pollutants have affected life expectancies among adult populations in these countries will also be examined and lastly, the differences in the effects of these pollutants on the male and female population. The findings from this study will help to improve life expectancies in the selected countries and also help identify those air pollutants affecting life expectancies so that policy makers can find ways of mitigating them.
Biographical sketch: Gbemisola Samuel received her first and second degrees in Demography and Social Statistics from Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria. She is a third-year PhD student of Demography and Social Statistics, Covenant University, and will graduate in August 2017. Her thesis is titled, “Proximate Determinants: The Pathways of Influence of Underlying Factors on Under-five Mortality in Nigeria”. Her research interests are in the areas of mortality, reproductive health, and population development.
Karen Umansky
Tel Aviv University
Research Project: The Impact of Immigration Education and Skill Levels on Europe’s Labor Force Participation and the Political Discourse about this Topic
Supervisor: Wolfgang Lutz
Abstract: Migration is an inherent part of contemporary Western societies. However, globalization and technological advances pose challenges not only to migrating populations, but also to hosting countries. Numerous claims suggesting a correlation between immigration, economic development, and unemployment are being made by the re-emerging populist radical right in contemporary European countries. This project aims to evaluate the current state of affairs and enrich the research in the field by combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. Recent studies have shown that education level affects the global labor force participation rate or the productivity of the labor force and, ultimately, the economic growth rate. Therefore, our objective is to assess education and skill levels and labor force participation rates of immigrants to European countries. Building on the multi-state and micro-simulation models developed at IIASA to make population projections and a qualitative analysis of the political discourse in Europe, the goal of this project is to generate science-based policy options for policy makers in regard to immigration policy, education, economic situation, labor market changes, as well as to attempt to provide myth-busting tools to combat the current radicalization of the political discourse.
Biographical sketch: Karen Umansky received her M.A. in Political Science from Tel Aviv University in 2014. Her thesis “The Quest for a “Legitimate” Enemy: Electoral Behavior of Populist Parties in Europe” provided empirical evidence from Austria, the Netherlands and the UK. Umansky is currently a third-year PhD candidate at the department of Public Policy at Tel Aviv University. The major scope of her research lies in the impact of immigration on European population, politics, and policies, focusing on the recent electoral success of populist radical parties in Europe in particular.
2016
Mr. Phillip Cantu
University of Texas at Austin, USA
Research Project: Health Trajectories in the HRS using a Latent Variable Approach
Supervisor: Nadia Steiber, Daniela Weber
Abstract: This project will examine trajectories of health and aging in the HRS using latent class analysis and a latent variable approach to measuring health and aging. We will analyze data from multiple waves of the Health and Retirement Survey. We will first model health as a latent variable using IRT methods, combing survey measurements of activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, functional limitation, and chronic conditions. Likewise we will estimate a latent variable of aging using objective physical measures, such as hand grips strength, and biomarkers, such as C-reactive protein. We will then use latent class analysis to study trajectories longitudinally. By using survey measurements of function to estimate health and objective measurements to estimate aging we hope to gain deeper perspectives on the meaning of both.
Biographical Sketch: Phillip Cantu is a third-year PhD Student in Sociology at The University of Texas at Austin. He previously received a bachelor’s degree in Sociology (2008) from Southwestern University in Georgetown Texas, and a master’s degree in Sociology (2014) from the University of Texas at Austin. His research focuses on aging populations, measurements of disability, and caregiving for aging families.
Mr. Wei Qi
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Research Project: Carbon footprint of inter-regional population migration in China
Supervisor: Guy Abel, Raya Muttarak
Abstract: Carbon emission is regarded as a key factor that contributes to greenhouse effect and global warming. As a major form of population growth, population migration contributed to both spatial demographic shift and carbon emission transfer, which forms the carbon footprint of inter-regional population migration. The energy consumption structure and per capita carbon emission level may be various in different regions, which contribute to a net carbon emission between places of origin and destination. Being the most populated and having the highest carbon emissions level in the world, China is facing a great challenge of environmental changes, which is partly caused by population migration.
This research aims to develop a model to calculate carbon footprint of inter-regional population migration in China. Based on the per capita difference between origins and destinations, inter-regional migration population flow data can be used for modeling the inter-regional carbon footprint. Furthermore, per capita residential carbon emission difference between urban and rural areas, migrants’ employment structure and demographic composition will also be taken into account in the model. Using the geographic information technology, census and survey data (i.e. social investigation data of migrants’ energy consumption) the flow map of population migration and carbon emission footprint can be produced. Furthermore, the main factors that affect the carbon footprint of inter-regional population migration in China will be identified.
Biographical Sketch: Wei Qi earned a bachelor’s degree from Nanjing University of Information Sciences & Technology, China in June 2011. He is currently a PhD student at Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. He was also a visiting scholar at UMR Geographie-Cités, National Center for Scientific Research in France from March, 2015 to March, 2016. His main fields of scientific interest include spatial demography, population migration, urban system and environment changes.
Ms. Ankita Shukla
International Institute for Population sciences, India
Research Project: Contribution of environmental risk factors and spatial characteristic on mortality disparities
Supervisor: Samir K.C., Markus Speringer
Abstract: Environment is a critical factor in the lives and livelihoods of the people. The long-term good health of population depends on the continued stability and functioning of the biosphere’s ecological and physical systems. Exposure to environmental risk factors and its effects on human health are well established. Studies in past have established that environmental health factors play an important role in human survival even when controlling for socio-economic variation. Air Pollution, Ambient Temperature and Rainfall also influences mortality. A substantial burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases in the developing countries is attributable to environmental risk factors. According to recent estimates environmental risk factors account for about one-fifth of the total burden of disease in low income countries. The burden of disease associated with environmental exposures is likely to vary across population subgroups, based on their socioeconomic status (SES). SES largely determines an individual's environmental risks, as well as access to resources to deal with those risks. Due to disparity in SES there can be disparity in exposure to risks as well as disparities in health-care access and treatment that can reduce disease severity and mortality risk. The problem is even worse in developing countries where a substantial proportion of population lives below poverty line. This study uses comparative risk assessment methods to calculate the mortality effects of environmental risk factors in India. Moreover, it also attempts to examine disparities in mortality caused by environmental risk factors and surrounding spatial characteristics.
Biographical Sketch: Ankita Shukla is pursuing her PhD degree at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai. Ms Shukla holds a master’s degree in Population Studies (MPS) and MSc in Health Statistics from Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi. Currently, Ms Shukla is working on her doctoral thesis, “A study of Spatial Clustering and Inequality in Mortality rates and Life Expectancy among Indian districts”. She has attended many national and international conferences.
Mr. Selvamani Yesuvadian
International Institute for Population Sciences, India
Research Project: Comparing the biological marker of aging in low and middle-income countries
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov
Abstract: In recent years, many countries across the globe experience the demographic process of population aging. Traditionally, a country is referred as aging when the proportion of population 60 and above years reaches 7 percent. The estimated aging population will be doubled by 2050 according to current measure of aging. However, evidence suggests that recent cohorts of aging population are taller, having better cognition and physical capability than the earlier counterparts which will provide growing aging population to increase their contribution in the society. As the projected aging population is growing faster, alternative measurement of aging based on observed characteristics will be useful to understand the aging speed in developing countries. Therefore, using WHO-SAGE wave 1 and 2 and LASI Pilot data, this study aims to measure the aging speed based on observed characteristics of aging population in six low and middle-income countries namely India, China, Ghana, Russia, Mexico and South Africa. Also, this study compares the physiological aging markers across six countries and by socioeconomic characteristics, which will explain the speed and quality of aging in selected countries by subgroups of the population. The study uses selected physiological markers of aging such as grip strength, cognitive ability, functional ability, and lung function to examine the aging speed in selected countries.
Biographical Sketch: Selvamani Yesuvadian is currently a second year PhD Scholar at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, India. He has completed MPhil and Master in Population Studies from IIPS, Master in Social Work from Loyola College, Chennai. His PhD thesis examines the association of early life conditions such as stature, childhood socioeconomic status and childhood health on later health and wellbeing outcomes. He uses data from 27 high and low-income countries to understand the quality of aging and aging process across countries. His research interests include life course determinants of health and wellbeing, quality of aging, measurement issues in health and aging and global public health.
2015
Ms. Arda Aktaş
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson
Research Project: Subjective age
Abstract: Age, as a human characteristic, is used in all kinds of economic, social, and demographic studies. Most of these studies use “chronological age,” that is, how many years people have already lived. However, we know that the health of today’s 50 year-olds differs from their counterparts a century ago thanks to improvements in health care, living conditions, education, etc. Indeed, today’s 50 years old have 30 years left to live, whereas, a century ago, they had only 20. In other words, “50 is the new 40.” How can this change in the understanding of age, which is not captured by the conventional age measure in a scientific way, be expressed? Age can be reconsidered in terms of years left to live instead of number of years lived (i.e., chronological age). In this research, we particularly focus on how many more years people think they have to live. We call this new measure “subjective age.” It allows us to include heterogeneity in the discussion, as individuals with different characteristics (e.g., health issues, education level, etc.) may have different expectations of how long they will live; and these may be dynamic, as such expectations can change over time. Furthermore, as the future is uncertain, people make decisions (such as consumption, saving, retirement etc.) based on their expectations, including how long they expect to live. We can thus test whether subjective age, which takes into account people’s expectations about how long they will live, are more predictive of people’s actual behavior than their chronological ages.
Our aims are, first, to develop a general methodology to calculate subjective life tables from given subjective survival probabilities for a specific target age; second, by using the Characteristics Approach developed by Warren Sanderson and Sergey Scherbov to produce subjective ages for different characteristics; and third, to test the hypothesis as to whether in fact they are more predictive of people’s behavior than their chronological ages.
Biographical Sketch: Arda Aktaş is a fourth year PhD candidate in Economics, with specialization in applied microeconomics, demographic economics, and labor economics, at Stony Brook University. She received a Bachelor and Master degree in Economics from Yildiz Technical University in 2005 and Middle East Technical University in 2007.
Ms. Dolly Kumari
Supervisor: Valeria Bordone
Co-Supervisor: Raya Muttarak
Research Project: Role of social cohesion and informal care givers in life satisfaction among elderly in urban areas
Abstract: The present study aims: i) to study the role of social cohesion in the life satisfaction and happiness of the elderly, controlling for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics in urban areas, and ii) to examine the role of the informal caregiver as a mediating factor in life satisfaction.
A cross-sectional study was conducted using primary data collected in structured and semi-structured interviews. The sample size was 530 households (1,060 individuals, with two respondents from each selected household; one aged 65+ and the other an informal caregiver in her sixties or under 60). Data will be analyzed by using STATA 12.01.
Social cohesion is a complex thing to understand and explain. Women have long been key players as caregivers to the family in India society, but at present they also participate in the labor force, particularly in urban areas. The typical role and characteristics of the caregiver is now changing and this has had a substantial influence on the perception and satisfaction of those receiving care. The happiness of an individual depends on various factors, but in the proposed study, we will try to see how the happiness of older people is affected by their caregiver. It is expected that if the older person is satisfied with the informal caregiver then they will also be have a high level of life satisfaction.
Biographical Sketch: Dolly Kumari is currently a third-year PhD candidate at International Institute for Population Sciences, India. Her PhD focuses on social cohesion and its influence on elders overall wellbeing in Urban areas. Her main research interests are social aspects of aging and public health. She has received two master degrees, one in Economics in 2011 from Patna University, India, and other one in Population Sciences in 2012 from International Institute for Population Sciences, India.
Mr. Miguel Poblete Cazenave
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson
Research Project: Labor market dynamics and projections using the Characteristics Approach of Sanderson and Scherbov
Abstract: A significant number of developed countries are facing a conflict in their labor market policies. Aging populations are providing a motivation to governments to increase the retirement age as more and more people are reaching older ages in better physical and mental health. On the other hand, for younger generations, entering the labor market is becoming increasingly harder, as can be seen by the high youth unemployment rates. This creates an important pattern of change in the labor market, as the age-specific percentage of younger people entering the labor market is decreasing while that of older people is increasing. Can this phenomenon be explained by changes in life cycle behavior as people’s age is seen from a different perspective?
I propose to develop a dynamic model of the labor market. Specifically, I will use the Characteristics Approach by Sanderson and Scherbov to try to explain why we are seeing a delay in younger people’s entrance to the job market and older people’s retirement age. By focusing on prospective age and differences in human capital, I will project different scenarios of labor market structures for the future and look at their potential impacts on other areas, like dependency ratios, economic growth, investment, and savings.
Biographical Sketch: Miguel Poblete Cazenave is a second-year PhD student in Economics at Stony Brook University. He previously received a BSc in Engineering (2009) and an Industrial Engineering degree (2010) from the University of Santiago, Chile, and a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Rochester , New York (2012). His research focus is on applying decision theory to develop agent-based models specifically related to demographic and labor economics problems.
IIASA Postdoctoral Program
Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program
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