Education, Reconstruction, and Projections

Back and forward projection methods are used by POP to reconstruct populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment for 120 countries. The back projections cover 1970-2000. The forward projections are for 2005-2050

Education Reconstruction for 1970-2000

The reconstruction of populations by age, sex and level of educational attainment for 120 countries for 1970-2000, using demographic back-projection methods is a collaboration between IIASA's World Population Program and the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID). Unlike earlier reconstruction efforts, this new dataset gives the full educational attainment distributions for four categories (no education, primary, secondary and tertiary education) by five-year age groups and with definitions that are strictly comparable across time. Based on empirical distributions of educational attainment by age and sex for the year 2000, the method moves backward along cohort lines while explicitly considering the fact that men and women with different education have different levels of mortality. The resulting dataset allows new estimates on the impact of age-specific human capital growth on economic growth.

Research Team

Anne Goujon, Samir K.C., Wolfgang Lutz and Warren Sanderson


    Comparison between data set and empirical data

    Education Forward Projections for 2000-2050

    Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals. The projection is a collaboration between IIASA's World Population Program and the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID).

    Research Team

    Bilal BarakatAnne Goujon, Samir K.C., Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Vegard Skirbekk 


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    Last edited: 22 April 2014


    Samir K.C.

    Research Group Leader and Senior Research Scholar Multidimensional Demographic Modeling Research Group - Population and Just Societies Program

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    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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