25 November 2019
IIASA researchers are successfully partnering in a new Horizon2020 project that has a focus on migration and will have a duration of 3 years, starting on 1 December 2019. The Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME) project, which includes 9 research partners in Europe, will focus on understanding the patterns, motivations and modalities of migration at multiple geographical scales, from international through regional to the local, and on imagining possible futures. IIASA population researchers, led by Anne Goujon, will be mainly responsible for the development of migration scenario narratives and developing the population projection model and migration projections, but will also contribute to other project tasks that include harmonizing migration data and the analysis of the drivers of migration.
The project builds upon research conducted at IIASA's World Population Program since the 1970s. The multi-state projection model is one of the leading methodologies for introducing heterogeneity into models of population dynamics whereby it is assumed that different sub-populations have different levels of fertility, mortality and migration. Recently, this has been applied to produce alternative scenarios for possible future population pathways for all countries in the world, taking into account the heterogeneity introduced by education.
Abstract: Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)
The local circumstances play a major role in the migration process, from the decision to migrate through the transit process up to the settlement in the destination countries. Nearly all international migrants move to – generally the largest – cities in destination countries, either directly, or after one or more internal moves. This is also the case across Europe, where population growth in many cities can be largely attributed to an influx of migrants. At the same time, in countries of origin the largest cities often function as gateways to destinations abroad. Many potential migrants in villages and small towns in origin countries first move to these larger cities before leaving their country. Cities, therefore, both in countries of origin and destination, are significant determinants of global migration and small-scale local knowledge on migration is necessary to avoid misleading results associated with the limitations arising from the use of global or national patterns only. FUME will therefore focus on understanding the patterns, motivations and modalities of migration at multiple geographical scales, from international through regional to the local, and on imagining possible futures. FUME will determine 1) the major factor explaining migrant movement patterns by analysing regional and local circumstances that either attract migrants or ‘push’ potential migrants to move, and 2) elaborate how possible future regional socio-demographic, economic and environmental challenges may shape future migrant movement patterns in Europe. FUME will support appropriate planning and policymaking by formulating integrated and coherent visions of how migration to and within Europe might evolve under different scenarios relating to potential demographic, socio-economic, political and environmental challenges.
This project receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no 870649, project name: Future Migration Scenarios for Europe, FUME.
Last edited: 26 November 2019
Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)
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Research at IIASA's World Population Program
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