18 March 2019
Data on the educational attainment of the population of some 200 countries (and regions) are now available for the period from 1950 to 2100 in the Version 2.0 of the Human Capital Data Explorer. This website presents a set of different scenarios (5) of future population and human capital trends from 2015 to 2100. The preliminary results of the population projections by levels of educational attainment were published in 2018 in Lutz, Goujon, KC, Stonawski, and Stilianakis (Eds.). Version 2.0 provides an update of the projections (scope, coverage and quality) also relying on the work presented in Lutz, Butz and KC in 2014 by a large team of researchers at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, WU) and at other institutions. It also includes back projections from 2015 to 1950. More information in Speringer et al. 2019.
The Human Capital Data Explorer contains detailed data by age, sex and educational attainment (6 categories and up to 8 for 60 countries) for a large set of indicators:
The graphic explorer allows to visualize population pyramids and the population size by education for any country and to create maps about the available indicators. All graphics can be downloaded.
The present version (2.0) benefitted from the partnership with the Joint Research Centre in the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). On top of the assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and education, the projections study the effect of several migration assumptions applied to the context of the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios related to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Further reading on the data from the global population projections by age, sex and education is provided in Lutz, Goujon, KC, Stonawski, and Stilianakis (Eds.) (2018) and in Speringer et al. (2019) for the reconstruction. Further features about the methodology can be found in Lutz, Butz, and K.C. (2014).
Lutz W, Butz WP, & KC S (2014). World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century. UK: Oxford University Press. ISBN 0198703163
Lutz W, Goujon A, KC S, Stonawski M, & Stilianakis N (2018). Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. ISBN 978-92-79-78023-3 DOI:10.2760/41776.
Speringer M, Goujon A, KC S, Potančoková M , Reiter C, Jurasszovich S, & Eder J (2019). Global Reconstruction of Educational Attainment, 1950 to 2015: Methodology and Assessment. Vienna Institute of Demography , Vienna, Austria.
Last edited: 15 March 2019
Human Capital Data Explorer 2.0
Sanchez-Romero M, Lee RD, & Fürnkranz-Prskawetz A (2020). Redistributive effects of different pension systems when longevity varies by socioeconomic status. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing 17: e100259. DOI:10.1016/j.jeoa.2020.100259.
KC S (2020). Updated demographic SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios complementing the SSP1-3 scenarios published in 2018. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-20-016
Bowen CE, Christiansen SG, Emelyanova A, Golubeva E, Stonawski M, & Skirbekk V (2020). Living Too Long or Dying Too Soon? Exploring How Long Young Adult University Students in Four Countries Want to Live. Journal of Adult Development 27: 157-169. DOI:10.1007/s10804-019-09335-y.
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