10 February 2012 - 11 February 2012
Capetown, South Africa

Workshop on the likely future trajectory of mortality in high mortality countries

The Workshop on the likely future trajectory of mortality in high mortality countries aims at developing assumptions about future patterns of mortality in high mortality countries based on a transparent, science-based methodology that narrows the gap between substantive scientific analyses and assumption making in projections.

At the Workshop, these mortality assumptions were combined with assumptions about fertility and international migration to produce multi-state projections by level of education and probabilistic population projections for all countries in the world.

The aim of the projection exercise, which is the first project of the new Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, is to produce a set of new world population projections by age, sex, and level of educational attainment for individual countries. The approach builds and refines a methodology used in previous rounds of projections developed at the World Population Program at IIASA.

More information about this approach in given in PopNet Issue 43. A key element of this approach is a survey of about 30 arguments that are likely to shape the future trajectories of fertility, mortality, and migration.

Members of international professional demographic associations were  invited to assess the validity of the arguments in a peer-review manner, based on their research experience and substantive knowledge. The results of the 557 survey responses to this questionnaire were presented and discussed during the workshop in Cape Town.

This workshop was sponsored by IIASA and supported by an Advanced Grant of the European Research Council, “Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change,” Grant Agreement No. ERC-2008-AdG 230195-FutureSoc.

Read more about the conference program here.

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Last edited: 10 December 2012

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