25 September 2014

NUS Seminar: Adding New Dimensions to Population Projections

IIASA's Samir KC will give a Seminar on multi-dimensional population projections at the National University of Singapore.

© Smithore | Dreamstime.com

© Smithore | Dreamstime.com

During his visit to the National University of Singapore (NUS) and invited by the Department of Sociology and the JY Pillay Comparative Research Centre, Samir KC will give a Seminar entitled "Multi-dimensional Population Projections: Adding New Dimensions to Age and Sex". He will present research from IIASA's World Population Program that shows how population projections for the future change if educational attainment is added as additional dimension. Selected highlights from the most recent compilation of projections which are presented in the book “World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century” (eds. Lutz, W., Butz, W.P., KC, S.) published with Oxford University Press, with a focus on Asia will top the presentation off.


How long will I live? How many children will I have? Where will I be living after 20 years?
These questions are related to the three core demographic components of population change. The future size and structure of a population are projected based on assumptions regarding the scenario specific trajectories of the three core demographic components of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration. Traditionally, the rates of fertility, mortality, and migration are specific to place of residence, age, and sex, and the population structure is presented by age and sex. Recently, it has been shown that educational attainment is an important additional dimension (representing human capital as well as socioeconomic status) that should be considered while projecting the population. In other words, the answers to the first three questions depend on your level of education.

The current distribution and the future development in educational attainment will have a
significant effect on the overall rates of demographic components. Adding this additional dimension does increase the level of complexity, exponentially, both in terms of data as well as method.

More than 25 researchers from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demogarphy and global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU) have recently conducted a global level population projection by age, sex, and educational attainment for most countries of the world. Under the title “World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century” (eds. Lutz, W., Butz, W.P., KC, S.) the theories, data, methods, and results were published (early September 2014) by Oxford University Press. In this talk, I will present the book highlighting the theories and method of assumptions making and share some results for the World and the Asia region.


Date: 25 September 2014, 3:00-4:30 PM

Location: Sociology Seminar Room, Blk AS1 #02-12

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Last edited: 19 September 2014


Samir K.C.

Research Group Leader

Multidimensional Demographic Modeling Research Group|Population and Just Societies Program

T +43(0) 2236 807 424

Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313