18 November 2019 - 22 November 2019
Kampala, Uganda

Harnessing Africa’s population dynamics for sustainable development

Scientists from IIASA's World Population Program will discuss latest research findings at the eight African Population Conference.

Kampala, Uganda © Tcockrem7 / Dreamstime.com

Kampala, Uganda © Tcockrem7 / Dreamstime.com

The African Population Conference (APC) is organized by the Union for African Population Studies (UAPS) every four years and the 8th APC aims to be the largest convening on population and development in Africa yet, with over 1,000 participants expected. Hosted by the Government of Uganda, the eight APC will take place between November 18-22, 2019 in Kampala, Uganda, under the theme “Harnessing Africa’s Population Dynamics for Sustainable Development: 25 Years After Cairo And Beyond”.

A goal of the conference is to assess how Africa, 25 years after the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, can harness its unique population dynamics for sustainable development, using rigorous evidence to establish roadmaps to respond to these critical development challenges. The conference will bring together researchers, policy makers, programme implementers, civil society, donors and sectoral influencers to discuss issues relevant to African population, including (but not limited to) national, regional and continental investments to address rapid urbanization, population growth, sexual and reproductive health, technology, youth, the demographic dividend and capacity building.

Wolfgang Lutz is one of the two speakers during high level session 24: Population Projections: Methods, Assumptions and Implications, on Monday, November 18, 6:00 PM - 7:30 PM. He will give a presentation titled "Probabilistic Population Projections". John R. Wilmoth, Director of the United Nations Population Division, will be the second speaker at this session.

For more information please visit the event website.

All IIASA contributions at the APC

Session 16: Harnessing the African Union’s Demographic Dividend Paradigm at Country Level: The Issue of Policy Prioritization and Agenda Operationalization, Monday, November 18, 4:00 PM - 5:30 PM

1. Deriving Niger’s Demographic and Education Future to 2062 with Stakeholders: Which Results?Anne Goujon, Guillaume Marois, Patrick Sabourin

Session 19: Population Projections: Methods, Assumptions and Implications, Monday, November 18, 6:00 PM - 7:30 PM
2. Probabilistic Population Projections • Wolfgang Lutz

Session 25: Conditions Necessary for African Countries to Harness the Dividend and Costs of Inaction, Monday, November 18, 6:00 PM - 7:30 PM

3. Education Rather than Age-Structure Brings Demographic DividendWolfgang Lutz, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Endale Kebede, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Erich Striessnig, Warren C. Sanderson 


Session 53: Demography of Human Capital Formation, Tuesday, November 19, 4:00 PM - 5:30 PM

Chair: Anne Goujon


The World Population Program at IIASA under the leadership of Lutz, has published probabilistic projections of the world population since 1996, producing large numbers of scenarios that systematically varied fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions to study their sensitivity in terms of different outcome variables.

In 2014, the projections presented in the Oxford University Press volume World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century (eds. Lutz W, Butz WP, KC S). It is the first book to systematically and quantitatively address the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. By adding education to the traditional demographic characteristics of age and sex, this distinguishing feature substantially alters the way we look at changes in populations and how we project them into the future. Through the systematic addition of the education dimension, this approach can be thought of as adding a ‘quality’ dimension to the consideration of population numbers.

The most recent projections were published in the framework of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM), a research partnership between IIASA's World Population Program and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. CEPAM conducts research on the likely longer-term impact of alternative migration scenarios on the changing structure of Europe’s population by not only considering age and sex but also education and labor force participation. Two major publications have been launched. A book Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century (eds. Lutz W, Goujon A, Samir KC, Stonawski M, Stilianakis N) in 2018, that examines potential future scenarios on population trends across the world, taking into account migration, fertility, mortality, education, and labor force participation, and a flagship report Demographic Scenarios for the EU: Migration, population and education (eds.  Lutz W, Amran G, Belanger A, Conte A, Gailey N, Ghio D, Grapsa E, Jensen K, et al.) in 2019, that examines the key factors that will shape European demographics over the coming decades.

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Last edited: 12 November 2019


Wolfgang Lutz

Senior Program Advisor:Acting Research Group Leader

Population and Just Societies Program|Social Cohesion


and Wellbeing Research Group

T +43(0) 2236 807 294

IIASA project

Demography and Education in Niger: A Prospective Analysis

IIASA-JRC Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration


Lutz, W., Reiter, C. , Özdemir, C., Yildiz, D. , Guimaraes, R. , & Goujon, A. (2021). Skills-adjusted human capital shows rising global gap. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (7), e2015826118. 10.1073/pnas.2015826118.

Lutz, W. & Gailey, N. (2020). Depopulation As A Policy Challenge In The Context Of Global Demographic Trends. UNDP Serbia

Reiter, C. , Özdemir, C., Yildiz, D. , Goujon, A. , Guimaraes, R. , & Lutz, W. (2020). The Demography of Skills-Adjusted Human Capital. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-20-006

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