Understanding, and preparing for, the higher-order impacts of natural disasters
Beyond the physical destruction of assets and lives, disasters may affect the economy through means such as the disruption of critical infrastructure, displacement of labor, and other interruptions to supply chain activities. For governments, firms, and households to adequately prepare for, and reduce, disaster risk, it is therefore important to understand what is referred to as the direct as well as the indirect or higher-order impact of disasters.
The CATSIM Inter-industry Impact Assessment module was developed in 2015 to assess the higher order impact of flood damage in Cambodia and Laos.
The inter-industry model expresses the time dependent nature of natural disaster impact, and quantifies the benefits of improved disaster preparedness.
IIASA’s Risk and Resilience team has built a CATSIM module which quantifies the inter-industry impact of natural disasters. The model estimates the economic costs of natural disasters across sectors and takes into account the economy’s existing production structures and estimated disaster recovery time. The model may be calibrated using commonly available datasets such as input-output tables and users may see the economic benefit of better fiscal preparedness (faster disaster recovery). This software module has been built as part of the CATSIM framework, and may be used in policy assessment and capacity building activates. Further software development which includes interface and other visualization tools is being planned.
Last edited: 14 October 2019
Mochizuki J , Vitoontus S, Wickramarachchi B, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Williges K, Mechler R, & Sovann R (2015). Operationalizing iterative risk management under limited information: fiscal and economic risks due to natural disasters in Cambodia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 6 (4): 321-334. DOI:10.1007/s13753-015-0069-y.
Williges K, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Mochizuki J , & Mechler R (2015). Modeling the indirect and fiscal risks from natural disasters for informing options for enhancing resilience and building back better. UNISDR
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