As part of the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), an assessment of quantitative, model-based climate change mitigation pathways was conducted. To support the assessment, the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) facilitated a coordinated and systematic community effort by inviting modelling teams to submit their available 1.5°C and related scenarios to a curated database. The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC SR15, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC.
The scenario ensemble contains more than 400 emissions pathways with underlying socio-economic development, energy system transformations and land use change until the end of the century, submitted by over a dozen research teams from around the world. The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than May 15, 2018, or published in a report determined by the IPCC to be eligible grey literature by the same date.
The dataset was also used in the IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL, 2019) and extended by several timeseries on prices related to agriculture. To acknowledge the significant contribution by several authors of the SRCCL regarding the additional analysis and extension of the scenario ensemble, the list of authors was amended with Release 2.0 and a new DOI was issued for the extended data.
The scenario ensemble is made publicly available to ensure reproducibility and transparency with respect to the scenario set that has been assessed in SR15 and SRCCL. The Scenario Explorer allows for the re-use of scenario data by other research communities. Please read the guidance note and the license terms on the License page before downloading data or figures.
When using the scenario ensemble or exporting figures/tables from this Scenario Explorer, please cite as detailed below. You should also include a clear indication of the version number of the release to ensure reproducibility.
Daniel Huppmann, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Katherine Calvin, Florian Humpenoeder, Alexander Popp, Steven K. Rose, John Weyant, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Valentina Bosetti, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Shinichiro Fujimori, David Gernaat, Arnulf Grubler, Celine Guivarch, Martin Haigh, Christian Holz, Gokul Iyer, Etsushi Kato, Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous, Florian Leblanc, Jing-Yu Liu, Konstantin Löffler, Gunnar Luderer, Adriana Marcucci, David McCollum, Silvana Mima, Ronald D. Sands, Fuminori Sano, Jessica Strefler, Junichi Tsutsui, Detlef Van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Marshall Wise, and Runsen Zhang.
IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA.
Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2019.
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.3363345 | url: data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer
In addition to the data you may want to cite also Chapter 2 of the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) where the scenario ensemble was assessed.
Joeri Rogelj, Drew Shindell, Kejun Jiang, et al. Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, in "Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15)". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2018.
Download citations: bibtex (bib) | EndNote (enl) | Reference Manager (RIS)
Please refer to the About page for more information on the content of the scenario ensemble, including the studies contributing scenarios and the full list of contributors to the scenario data.
Last edited: 25 March 2021
IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Oshiro, K., Fujimori, S. , Ochi, Y., & Ehara, Tomoki (2021). Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction. Energy 227, e120464. 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120464.
Dianati, K., Schäfer, L., Milner, J., Gomez Sanabria, A. , Gitau, H., Hale, J., Langmaack, H., Kiesewetter, G., et al. (2021). A System Dynamics-based Scenario Analysis of Residential Solid Waste Management in Kisumu, Kenya. Science of the Total Environment 777, e146200. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146200.
Yue, H, Worrell, E, Crijns-Graus, W, & Zhang, S. (2021). The potential of industrial electricity savings to reduce air pollution from coal-fired power generation in China. Journal of Cleaner Production 301, e126978. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126978.
Böttcher, K., Paunu, V.-V., Kupiainen, K., Zhizhin, M., Matveev, A., Savolahti, M., Klimont, Z. , Väätäinen, S., et al. (2021). Black carbon emissions from flaring in Russia in the period 2012-2017. Atmospheric Environment 254, e118390. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118390.
Pianta, S., Brutschin, E., van Ruijven, B. , & Bosetti, V. (2021). Faster or slower decarbonization? Policymaker and stakeholder expectations on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy transition. Energy Research & Social Science 76, e102025. 10.1016/j.erss.2021.102025.
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