Envisioning Paradigm Shifts in Society (PASHMINA)

The PASHMINA project uses complex modeling to create scenarios that envision changes in the use of energy, transportation, land, and the environment 20 to 40 years into the future.


PASHMINA is an effort to anticipate and model possible paradigm shifts in the economic, social, technological, and environmental spheres and to understand their implications. The project creates a host of scenarios depicting major changes in energy supplies, agriculture, land use, transportation, and the environment. A central goal of PASHMINA is to avoid the historical tendency of seeing the future as a continuation of the past and instead envision a future that is significantly different from the present.

IIASA Research

IIASA’s economic, energy, and land-use models (including GLOBIOM and BeWhere) are being integrated with models used by other project consortium members and adapted to make long-range forecasts more sensitive to paradigm shifts. With better models detailing an array of scenarios, policymakers can better anticipate which options to choose and which to avoid.

Examining the trade-offs and the costs and benefits of different strategies is essential if scientists are to identify robust solutions to problems being exacerbated by limited resources and a changing climate.

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Last edited: 25 April 2013


01.11.2009 - 31.10.2012


Further Information

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313