Monitoring Mode Track I

Figure 1 illustrates the impact of uncertainty on the amount of emission permits that can be traded under the Kyoto Protocol (Track II). Track II refers to any year (here 200x) between 1990 (base year) and 2010 (commitment year) and a situation when countries can, in principal, take part in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol because they succeeded in reducing their net GHG emissions below their 200x linear path emissions targets defined by the countries’ Kyoto (emissions) target [KT] in 2010. The figure distinguishes three cases to visualize the difference between: A) undershooting of the 200x linear path emissions target with a risk > 0 and < 0.5 that a country’s true emissions fall above this target; B) a case similar to case A but with a smaller risk; and C) undershooting of the 200x linear path emissions target with zero risk that a country’s true emissions fall above this target.

Fig. 1: Track II: monitoring mode. The three countries (Parties) A–C under the Kyoto Protocol which exhibit identical GHG emissions and uncertainties in their base year (here 1990 for all) and also an identical Kyoto (emissions) target [KT] in the commitment year (2010). Track II refers to any year (here 200x) between 1990 and 2010. Here, Parties A–C can all, in principal, take part in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol as they undershoot their 200x linear path emissions targets. Party A: ‘over-compliance’ with a risk > 0 and < 0.5 that Party A’s true emissions fall above its 200x linear path emissions target; Party B: like Party A but with a smaller risk; and Party C: safe ‘over-compliance with zero risk that Party C’s true emissions fall above its 200x linear path emissions target.



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Last edited: 22 July 2013

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