Christian Folberth

Christian Folberth joined IIASA's Ecosystem Services and Management Program as a Research Scholar in November 2013. He received his BSc in Horticultural Sciences and MSc in Environmental Planning and Engineering Ecology from Technical University of Munich. For the latter, he investigated factors influencing the degradation of pesticides in soil samples under laboratory conditions and a method for estimating the bioavailability of pesticides in soils.

Subsequently, he conducted a PhD research project at the Swiss Federal institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG) and ETH Zurich. The thesis dealt with large-scale modeling of climate change impacts on global crop yields, regionalization of the crop model for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the assessment of different management practices for elevating yields and adapting to climate change in SSA. Additional research projects included climate change impacts on biofuel production in the USA, unbalanced fertilizer application in SSA, and the participation in the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP).

Dr. Folberth's research interests include bio-physical agricultural modeling, climate change impacts on agricultural production, and environmental quality related to agricultural production.

Last update: 19 NOV 2013

Carr, T.W., Balkovič, J. , Dodds, P.E., Folberth, C. , & Skalský, R. (2021). The impact of water erosion on global maize and wheat productivity. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 322, e107655. 10.1016/j.agee.2021.107655.

Zhang, X., Yao, G., Vishwakarma, S., Dalin, C., Komarek, A.M., Kanter, D.R., Davis, K.F., Pfeifer, K., et al. (2021). Quantitative assessment of agricultural sustainability reveals divergent priorities among nations. One Earth 4 (9), 1262-1277. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.015.

Franke, J.A., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. , Gardner, C., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R.C., et al. (2021). Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.15868. (In Press)

Zabel, F., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Minoli, S., Jägermeyr, J., Schneider, J.M., Franke, J.A., Moyer, E., et al. (2021). Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Global Change Biology 27 (16), 3870-3882. 10.1111/gcb.15649.

Ringeval, B., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Mueller, N.D., Ciais, P., Folberth, C. , Liu, W., Debaeke, P., et al. (2021). Potential yield simulated by global gridded crop models: using a process-based emulator to explain their differences. Geoscientific Model Development 14 (3), 1639-1656. 10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021.

Müller, C., Franke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Ruane, A.C., Elliott, J., Moyer, E., Heinke, J., Falloon, P.D., et al. (2021). Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 16 (3), e034040. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fc.

Khabarov, N. , Smirnov, A. , Balkovič, J. , Skalský, R. , Folberth, C. , Van Der Velde, M., & Obersteiner, M. (2020). Heterogeneous Compute Clusters and Massive Environmental Simulations Based on the EPIC Model. Modelling 1 (2), 215-224.

Laso Bayas, J.C. , Gardeazabal, A., Karner, M., Folberth, C. , Vargas, L., Skalský, R. , Balkovič, J. , Subash, A., et al. (2020). AgroTutor: A Mobile Phone Application Supporting Sustainable Agricultural Intensification. Sustainability 12 (22)

Carr, T.W., Balkovič, J. , Dodds, P.E., Folberth, C. , Fulajtar, E., & Skalský, R. (2020). Uncertainties, sensitivities and robustness of simulated water erosion in an EPIC-based global gridded crop model. Biogeosciences 17 (21), 5263-5283. 10.5194/bg-17-5263-2020.

Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T, Reyer, C.P.O., Warszawski, L., et al. (2020). Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future 8 (12) 10.1029/2020EF001616.

Laso Bayas, J.C. , Gardeazabal, A., Karner, M., Folberth, C. , Vargas, L., Skalský, R. , Balkovič, J. , Subash, A., et al. (2020). AgroTutor: A Mobile Phone Application Supporting Agricultural Sustainable Intensification. Preprints (Submitted)

Balkovič, J. , Madaras, M., Skalský, R. , Folberth, C. , Smatanová, M., Schmid, E., van der Velde, M., Kraxner, F., et al. (2020). Verifiable soil organic carbon modelling to facilitate regional reporting of cropland carbon change: A test case in the Czech Republic. Journal of Environmental Management 274, e111206. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111206.

Flach, R., Fader, M., Folberth, C. , Skalský, R. , & Jantke, K. (2020). The effects of cropping intensity and cropland expansion of Brazilian soybean production on green water flows. Environmental Research Communications 2 (7), e071001. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab9d04.

Flach, R., Skalsky, R. , Folberth, C. , Balkovic, J. , Jantke, K., & Schneider, U.A. (2020). Water productivity and footprint of major Brazilian rainfed crops – A spatially explicit analysis of crop management scenarios. Agricultural Water Management 233, e105996. 10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105996.

Folberth, C. , Khabarov, N. , Balkovic, J. , Skalsky, R. , Visconti, P., Ciais, P., Janssens, I., Peñuelas, J., et al. (2020). The global cropland sparing potential of high-yield farming. Nature Sustainability 3, 281-289. 10.1038/s41893-020-0505-x.

Jägermeyr, J., Robock, A., Elliott, J., Müller, C., Xia, L., Khabarov, N. , Folberth, C. , Schmid, E., et al. (2020). A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.1919049117.

Franke, J.A., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A.C., Jägermeyr, J., Balkovic, J. , Ciais, P., Dury, M., et al. (2020). The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0). Geoscientific Model Development 13 (5), 2315-2336. 10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020.

Herrero, M., Thornton, P.K., Mason-D’Croz, D., Palmer, J., Benton, T.G., Bodirsky, B.L., Bogard, J.R., Hall, A., et al. (2020). Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system. Nature Food 1 (5), 266-272. 10.1038/s43016-020-0074-1.

Rovenskaya, E. , Aghababaei Samani, K., Baklanov, A. , Ermolieva, T., Folberth, C. , Fritz, S., Hadi, H., Javalera Rincón, V. , et al. (2019). Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Systems Analysis of the 21st Century. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-19-010

Ermolieva, T., Havlik, P. , Boere, E., Balkovic, J. , Skalsky, R. , Folberth, C. , Khabarov, N. , Fritz, S., et al. (2019). A strategic decision–support system for strategic robust adaptation to climate change and systemic risks in land use systems: Stochastic integrated assessment GLOBIOM model. In: Integrated modeling”: the case of the food-water-energy-environmental NEXUS management under uncertainty and risk, 26-27 November 2019, Brussels.

Folberth, C. , Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovič, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. , et al. (2019). Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble. PLoS ONE 14 (9), e0221862. 10.1371/journal.pone.0221862.

FABLE 2019, (2019). Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Kelly, D., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. , Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. , et al. (2019). The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset. Scientific Data 6 (1), e50. 10.1038/s41597-019-0023-8.

Laso Bayas, J.C. , Gardeazabal, A., Kerner, M., Vargas, L., Folberth, C. , Skalský, R. , Balkovič, J. , Declerce, S., et al. (2019). AgroTutor: Promoting agricultural sustainable intensification and crowdsourcing plot information. In: ESA Living Planet Symposium, May 2019, Milan, Italy.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A., Jägermeyr, J., Balkovic, J. , Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., et al. (2019). Understanding crop model response types in a global gridded crop model ensemble. In: Agriculture and Climate Change, 24-26 March 2019, Budapest, Hungary.

Folberth, C. , Baklanov, A. , Balkovic, J. , Skalsky, R. , Khabarov, N. , & Obersteiner, M. (2019). Spatio-temporal downscaling of gridded crop model yield estimates based on machine learning. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 264, 1-15. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.021.

Schewe, J., Gosling, S., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., et al. (2019). State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6.

Liu, W., Yang, H., Folberth, C. , Müller, C., Ciais, P., Abbaspour, K.C., & Schulin, R. (2018). Achieving High Crop Yields with Low Nitrogen Emissions in Global Agricultural Input Intensification. Environmental Science & Technology 52 (23), 13782-13791. 10.1021/acs.est.8b03610.

Folberth, C. , Baklanov, A. , Balkovic, J. , Skalsky, R. , Khabarov, N. , & Obersteiner, M. (2018). Supplementary Datasets S1 and S2 for the paper “Spatio-temporal downscaling of gridded crop model yield estimates based on machine learning”.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C., Ciais, P., Balkovic, J. , Deryng, D., Folberth, C. , et al. (2018). Global patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs. PLoS ONE 13 (6), e0198748. 10.1371/journal.pone.0198748.

Schleussner, C.-F., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Saeed, F., Folberth, C. , Liu, W., Wang, X., et al. (2018). Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters 13, e064007. 10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b.

Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Antle, J., Elliott, J., Ashfaq, M., Chatta, A.A., Ewert, F., Folberth, C. , et al. (2018). Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376 (2119), e20160455. 10.1098/rsta.2016.0455.

Balkovic, J. , Skalsky, R. , Folberth, C. , Khabarov, N. , Schmidt, E., Madaras, M., Obersteiner, M. , & van der Velde, M. (2018). Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply. Earth's Future 6 (3), 373 -395. 10.1002/2017EF000629.

Balkovic, J. , Skalsky, R. , Folberth, C. , Khabarov, N. , Schmid, E., Madaras, M., Obersteiner, M. , & van der Velde, M. (2018). pan-EU EPIC crop calendar and fertilization data. 10.22022/ESM/02-2018.15104.

Lim, C.-H., Choi, Y., Kim, M., Lee, S., Folberth, C. , & Lee, W.-K. (2018). Spatially Explicit Assessment of Agricultural Water Equilibrium in the Korean Peninsula. Sustainability 10 (1), p. 201. 10.3390/su10010201.

Frieler, K., Schauberger, B., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. , Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. , et al. (2017). Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability. Earth's Future 5 (6), 605-616. 10.1002/2016EF000525.

Porwollik, V., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Iizumi, T., Ray, D.K., Ruane, A.C., Arneth, A., et al. (2017). Spatial and temporal uncertainty of crop yield aggregations. European Journal of Agronomy 88, 10-21. 10.1016/j.eja.2016.08.006.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. , Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. , et al. (2017). Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 10, 1403-1422. 10.5194/gmd-2016-207.

Keil, L., Folberth, C. , Jedelhauser, M., & Binder, C.R. (2017). Time-Continuous Phosphorus Flows in the Indian Agri-Food Sector: Long-Term Drivers and Management Options. Journal of Industrial Ecology 22 (2), 406-421. 10.1111/jiec.12560.

Schauberger, B., Archontoulis, S., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. , Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Eliott, J., Folberth, C. , et al. (2017). Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Communications 8, art.no.13931. 10.1038/ncomms13931.

Folberth, C. , Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovic, J. , Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. , et al. (2016). Uncertainties in global crop model frameworks: effects of cultivar distribution, crop management and soil handling on crop yield estimates. Biogeosciences Discussions, 1-30. 10.5194/bg-2016-527. (Submitted)

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D.B., Martre, P., Ruane, A.C., et al. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change 6 (12), 1130-1136. 10.1038/nclimate3115.

Pugh, T.A.M, Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. , Olin, S., Schmid, E., & Arneth, A. (2016). Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nature Communications 7, e12608. 10.1038/ncomms12608.

Liu, W., Yang, H., Folberth, C. , Wang, X., Luo, Q., & Schulin, R. (2016). Global investigation of impacts of PET methods on simulating crop-water relations for maize. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 221, 164-175. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.02.017.

Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. , Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Boote, K.J., Conway, D., Ruane, A.C., et al. (2016). Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nature Climate Change 6 (4), 1-8. 10.1038/NCLIMATE2995.

Azevedo, L., Vadas, P.A., Balkovič, J. , Skalsky, R. , Folberth, C. , van der Velde, M., & Obersteiner, M. (2016). Potential substitution of mineral P fertilizer by manure: EPIC development and implementation. In: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2016, 17–22 April 2016, Vienna, Austria.

Folberth, C. , Skalsky, R. , Moltchanova, E., Balkovic, J. , Azevedo, L., Obersteiner, M. , & van der Velde, M. (2016). Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in crop yield simulations. Nature Communications 7, art.no.11872. 10.1038/ncomms11872.

Mueller, C., Elliot, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. , Pugh, T.A.M., & Schmid, E. (2015). Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production. Environmental Research Letters 10 (12), no.125004. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125004.

Balkovic, J. , van der Velde, M., Skalsky, R. , Xiong, W., Folberth, C. , Khabarov, N. , Smirnov, A. , Mueller, N.D., et al. (2014). Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Global and Planetary Change 122, 107-121. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.010.

Folberth, C. , Yang, H., Gaiser, T., Liu, J., Wang, X., Williams, J., & Schulin, R. (2014). Effects of ecological and conventional agricultural intensification practices on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa under potential climate change. Environmental Research Letters 9 (4), no.044004. 10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044004.

Balkovic, J. , van der Velde, M., Skalsky, R. , Xiong, W., Folberth, C. , Khabarov, N. , & Smirnov, A. (2014). Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 16:EGU2014-5906

van der Velde, M., Folberth, C. , Balkovic, J. , Ciais, P., Fritz, S., Janssens, I.A., Obersteiner, M. , See, L. , et al. (2014). African crop yield reductions due to increasingly unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus consumption. Global Change Biology 20 (4), 1278-1288. 10.1111/gcb.12481.

van der Velde, M., Folberth, C. , Balkovic, J. , Ciais, P., Fritz, S., Janssens, I.A., Obersteiner, M. , See, L. , et al. (2014). African crop yield reductions due to increasingly unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus consumption. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 16:EGU2014-1209

Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Mueller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., et al. (2014). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9), 3239-3244. 10.1073/pnas.1222474110.

Piontek, F., Mueller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., González, F.G.C., Flörke, M., et al. (2014). Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9), 3233-3238. 10.1073/pnas.1222471110.

Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A.C., Mueller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K.J., Folberth, C. , et al. (2014). Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9), 3268-3273. 10.1073/pnas.1222463110.

Dominguez-Faus, R., Folberth, C. , Liu, J., Jaffe, A.M., & Alvarez, P.J.J. (2013). Climate change would increase the water intensity of irrigated corn ethanol. Environmental Science & Technology 10.1021/es400435n.

Liu, J., Folberth, C. , Yang, H., Roeckstroem, J., Abbaspour, K., & Zehnder, A.J.B. (2013). A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use. PLoS ONE 8 (2), e57750. 10.1371/journal.pone.0057750.