17 July 2018
Review of developing simulation models for decision-making systems for economic, social and ecological planning
Within a seminar, main directions of researches in the field of simulation modelling which conduct in the Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics of Russian Academy of Science will be presented.
Firstly, we developed a series of agent-based models (ABM) of the human crowd behavior in emergency. The behavior of evacuated agents interacting with agent-rescuers is simulated with taking into account different situations (e.g. fires, explosions, smoke spreading, etc.) that cause effects of the ‘crowd turbulence’ and the ‘crowd сrush’. Such models are integrated with the developed the fuzzy clustering algorithm, the parallel genetic optimization algorithm and other computational methods in order to seek the best scenarios of the evacuation under different constraints.
The second direction of our researches is related to developing agent-based ecological-economic models which are intended for seeking the best trade-offs on ecological modernization of enterprises using a case study of the Republic of Armenia. Such models allowing seeking the Pareto optimal solutions that reducing the total air pollution keeping up the positive dynamics of the industrial production. The second group of models are intended for multi-agent simulation of air pollution dynamics in a city using a case study of Yerevan, Armenia. These models are based on using natural resources, such as agent-trees for reducing the air pollution concentration. Thus, we developed decision-making systems for ecological planning in a whole country and a city levels.
The third type of our models are simulations using system dynamics (SD) and discrete-event simulations which are developed for a control of activities of vertically integrated corporations (e.g., petroleum corporations, financial corporation, etc.). Using real industrial cases developed and implemented in the largest transnational corporations such as Lukoil, Sberbank, Rosneft we will demonstrate how integrated simulation models aggregated with developed genetic optimization algorithms can be a core decision-making systems for economic and investment planning.
Last edited: 12 November 2018
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