04 May 2015

Matthias Jonas gave a talk at the 16th Austrian Climate Colloquium

Matthias Jonas gave a talk “A metric for the predictive outreach of prognostic scenarios: Learning from the past to establish a standard in applied systems analysis” at the 16th Austrian Climate Colloquium which was held at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria on 30 April 2015.  

He argued that an easy-to-apply metric or indicator is needed that informs non-experts about the time in the future at which a prognostic scenario ceases to be (for whatever reasons) in accordance with the system’s past. Dr. Jonas anticipated that the way of constructing prognostic models and conducting systems analysis will have to meet a quality standard by:

  • better diagnostic data handling (retrospective learning)
  • specifying the models outreach limits
  • safe-guarding complex models by means of meta-models which fulfill the above

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Last edited: 30 June 2015


Matthias Jonas

Senior Research Scholar

Exploratory Modeling Of Human-Natural Systems Research Group

T +43(0) 2236 807 430

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313