Sebastian Poledna

Sebastian Poledna is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). MMag. Dr. Poledna holds double degrees in physics, and in economics and business administration and previously worked for almost a decade as a practitioner in risk management for one of the largest European banks.

In terms of the research activity his portfolio of interests is broad and includes new approaches to economic forecasting, impact of climate change on socio economic systems, systemic risk of various complex systems and financial regulation. He authored several papers in international peer-reviewed journals such as the Journal of Banking & Finance, the Journal of Financial Stability, Quantitative Finance, and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, etc., as well as publishing in interdisciplinary science journals, such as Nature Communications.

MMag. Dr. Poledna’s work (in particular his suggestion for a systemic risk transaction tax) has generated interest from numerous policy makers from institutions such as the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Mexico (Banco de Mexico), the Bundesbank, the German Ministry of Finance, and the European Commission. He has presented his work at numerous international conferences and workshops and received recognition in both national and international news media such as the Suddeutsche Zeitung and Bloomberg. He has active collaborations with researchers from several central banks and is in close contact with financial practitioners.


Last update: 17-APR-2020

Poledna, S., Martínez-Jaramillo, S., Caccioli, F., & Thurner, S. (2020). Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system. Journal of Financial Stability, p. 100808. 10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100808. (In Press)

Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Colon, C., Boza, G., Poledna, S., Rovenskaya, E. , & Dieckmann, U. (2020). Enhancing Resilience of Systems to Individual and Systemic Risk: Steps toward An Integrative Framework. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 51, e101868. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101868.

Poledna, S., Miess, M.G., & Hommes, C.H. (2020). Economic Forecasting with an Agent-Based Model. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-20-001

Poledna, S., Rovenskaya, E. , Dieckmann, U. , Hochrainer-Stigler, S., & Linkov, I. (2020). Systemic Risk Emerging from Interconnections: The Case of Financial Systems. In: Systemic Thinking for Policy Making: The Potential of Systems Analysis for Addressing Global Policy Challenges in the 21st Century. pp. 123-132 Paris, France: New Approaches to Economic Challenges, OECD Publishing. ISBN 978-92-64-49456-510.1787/879c4f7a-en.

Poledna, S., Miess, M.G., & Hommes, C.H. (2019). Economic Forecasting with an Agent-Based Model. SSRN Electronic Journal 10.2139/ssrn.3484768.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Colon, C., Boza, G., Brännström, Å., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Pflug, G. , Poledna, S., Rovenskaya, E. , et al. (2019). Measuring, modeling, and managing systemic risk: the missing aspect of human agency. Journal of Risk Research, 1-17. 10.1080/13669877.2019.1646312.

Lalith, M., Gill, A., Poledna, S., Hori, M., Hikaru, I., Tomoyuki, N., Koyo, T., & Ichimura, T. (2019). Distributed Memory Parallel Implementation of Agent-Based Economic Models. In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science. pp. 419-433 Faro, Portugal: Springer. 10.1007/978-3-030-22741-8_30.

Klimek, P., Poledna, S., & Thurner, S. (2019). Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery. Nature Communications 10 (1), e1677. 10.1038/s41467-019-09357-w.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Pflug, G. , Dieckmann, U. , Rovenskaya, E. , Thurner, S., Poledna, S., Boza, G., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., et al. (2018). Integrating Systemic Risk and Risk Analysis Using Copulas. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 9 (4), 561-567. 10.1007/s13753-018-0198-1.

Poledna, S., Hinteregger, A., & Thurner, S. (2018). Identifying Systemically Important Companies by Using the Credit Network of an Entire Nation. Entropy 20 (10), p. 792. 10.3390/e20100792.

Pichler, A., Poledna, S., & Thurner, S. (2018). Systemic-risk-efficient asset allocation: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem. Journal of Financial Stability (In Press)

Poledna, S., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Miess, M., Klimek, P., Schmelzer, S., Sorger, J., Shchekinova, E., Rovenskaya, E. , et al. (2018). When does a disaster become a systemic event? Estimating indirect economic losses from natural disasters. arXiv preprint

Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Boza, G., Colon, C., Poledna, S., Rovenskaya, E. , & Dieckmann, U. (2018). IRGC resource guide on resilience (vol. 2): Domains of resilience for complex interconnected systems. In: Domains of resilience for complex interconnected systems. Eds. Trump, B.D., Florin, M.V. & Linkov, I., Lausanne, Switzerland: EPFL International Risk Governance Center.

Leduc, M.V., Poledna, S., & Thurner, S. (2017). Systemic risk management in financial networks with credit default swaps. The Journal of Network Theory in Finance 3 (3), 19-39. 10.21314/JNTF.2017.034.

Poledna, S., Bochmann, O., & Thurner, S. (2017). Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 77, 230-246. 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.02.004.

Poledna, S., Miess, M., Schmelzer, S., Rovenskaya, E. , Hochrainer-Stigler, S., & Thurner, S. (2017). Agent-based Modelling of Systemic Risk: A Big-data Approach. In: IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017, 27 February-1 March 2017, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S. & Poledna, S. (2016). Modelling Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disaster Risk: A Large Scale Agent Based Modelling Approach Using Copulas. In: IDRiM 2016 7th International Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk Management Disasters and Development: Towards a Risk Aware Society, October 1-3, 2016, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran.

Wildemeersch, M. , Strelkovskii, N. , Poledna, S., & Leduc, M. (2016). Network reslience and systemic risk. Methodological approaches to address network resilience. In: European Meetings on Cybernetics and Systems Research, 30 March-1 April 2016, Vienna.

Leduc, M.V., Poledna, S., & Thurner, S. (2016). Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-20. 10.2139/ssrn.2713200.

Leduc, M.V., Poledna, S., & Thurner, S. (2016). Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps. In: NetSci-X 2016, 11 -13 January, 2016, Wroclaw, Poland.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S. & Poledna, S. (2016). Modelling Dependent Risk With Copulas: An Application On Flooding Using Agent-Based Modelling. Geoinformatics Research Papers 4 (BS4002) 10.2205/2016BS01Sochi.

Poledna, S. & Thurner, S. (2016). Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax. Quantitative Finance, 1-15. 10.1080/14697688.2016.1156146.

Leduc, M.V., Poledna, S., & Thurner, S. (2015). Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps. In: Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa, 11 -13 November, 2015, Laxenburg, Austria.

Poledna, S., Molina-Borboa, J.L., Martinez-Jaramillo, S., van der Leij, M., & Thurner, S. (2015). The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises. Journal of Financial Stability 20, 70-81. 10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.001.

Klimek, P., Poledna, S., Farmer, J.D., & Thurner, S. (2015). To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 50, 144-154. 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.08.020.

Poledna, S., Thurner, S., Farmer, J.D., & Geanakoplos, J. (2014). Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies. Journal of Banking & Finance 42 (1), 199-212. 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.01.038.

Thurner, S. & Poledna, S. (2013). DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks. Scientific Reports 3, no.1888. 10.1038/srep01888.