In an interconnected world, Europe’s economy and society will be increasingly affected by climate change impacts that occur beyond its borders. This Horizon 2020 project explores how this will affect Europe’s economy, finance and policy.
The movement of goods and services, people and capital across the world occurs at ever increasing rates and volumes. This complex network reveals Europe’s globalised climate exposure, vulnerability and risk structure, through which both gradual and sudden impacts of climatic features at any location of the world (hurricanes, droughts, melting ice sheets) propagate, ultimately impacting Europe’s socio-economic welfare.
In order to provide relevant and quantitative information on European risks from remote global climatic features, RECEIPT will develop and implement a novel stakeholder driven storytelling concept that maps representative connections between European socio-economic activities and remote climatic hazards. Using a limited number of storylines designed for selected sectors, RECEIPT has the following key objectives and deliverables:
- Mapping of global hotspots of remote areas with climate features relevant for Europe, using state-of-the-art climate and climate-impact databases
- Science-based sectoral storylines co-developed with societal partners, describing the impacts of remote climate change on: European food security, the financial sector, international development, commodities and European coastal infrastructure
- Assessment of European socio-economic impacts along each of the selected storylines under different future climatic conditions, including high-end climate scenarios
- A robust synthesis of the storyline results into a pan-European socio-economic risk assessment focusing on the difference between high-end and moderate climate change conditions
- Innovative web-based concepts for visualising potential impacts of remote drivers and mapping risk mitigation options
IIASA, via the RISK and ESM programs, contributes to the following work packages:
- Agriculture and food production (ESM): This task will map and assess the economic dependency and climatic vulnerability of Europe’s key traded agricultural commodities. The impact on Europe’s food security, markets and trade dependencies of representative future climate-induced production shocks on the selected agricultural commodities in key hotspot regions will be assessed. This assessment will be pursued through a combination of productivity assessments using biophysical crop models, supply, market and trade relations using the bio-economic model GLOBIOM and a risk assessment of compound impacts. Various adaptation and policy strategies to mitigate the impacts on EU’s food security and agri-food economy will be researched and proposed.
- Impacts on public and private finance (RISK): This work package led by IIASA will assess risks and liabilities related to (i) climate-related shocks and risks that represent direct (EU outermost regions) and moral (development assistance) obligations for the public sector both in terms of recovery and risk management, (ii) European insurers and re-insurers that are essential players in a globalised market, and (iii) the private sector exposed via portfolio and foreign direct investments.
- International cooperation, development and resilience (RISK): In selected target countries, the project will (i) analyse the nexus between climate change, security and resilience, (ii) assess the impacts of and capacity to adapt to climate change and connected environmental (e.g. natural hazard risk, land degradation, water resources availability) and socio-political pressures (e.g. social cohesion, political stability), in order to sustain progress towards national development goals, and (iii) explore future needs for development aid and humanitarian interventions.
- Synthesis (RISK/ESM): synergy of risks and policy implications: This work component is designed to (i) integrate the findings of all working package, (ii) conduct an overarching risk assessment and explore implications of the external climate risk for Europe based on the storylines developed, and (iii) develop recommendations for greater coherence between internal and external EU policy actions, contributing to building resilient economies and societies.