Population and Environmental Change

ABSTRACT 

Population and human capital scenarios for the 21st century in the context of environmental change.

This presentation will take a long-term global perspective on demographic 
trends. It is based on a multi-dimensional approach to demography based on
the classic definition of demography as the scientific study of changing
population size and structures (plural) which goes beyond the frequent narrow
focus on age structure and includes changing structures by level of education,
labor force participation, place of birth and place of residence and other
demographic characteristics.
 

It will explore the historical roots of the demographic transition, the process
that brings birth and death rates from high and essentially uncontrolled levels
to low and mostly controlled levels, with different societies being at different
stages of this universal process. I will discuss the determinants of this
transition and introduce the concept of cognition driven demographic
transition. In addition to this demographic theory with predictive power I will
highlight two further demographic theories: demographic metabolism
(intergenerational replacement) and demographic dividend.
 

These demographic concepts will be applied to developing alternative
population scenarios for the 21st century – based on the SSPS (Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways, which are widely used in the field of climate change
analysis). They have been defined on the basis of an extensive global expert
inquiry and give alternative scenario for all countries by age, sex, level of
education and place of residence with respect to different socioeconomic
capacities for climate change mitigation and adaptation. I will also highlight
how education turns out to be a key determinant of future adaptive capacity to
environmental change. I will also address the implications for these trends on
future human wellbeing in different parts of the world and different sub-
populations – discussing the new indicator of “Years of Good Life” – and show
how demography can importantly contribute to the broader field of
sustainability science.