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Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
Models, tools, datasets
POPULATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROJECTIONS (SSP 2023)
Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data & Graphic Explorer Version 3.0 (WCDE)
Projects
Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)
Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)
Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)
Link4Skills (Link4Skills)
Staff
Andrea Tamburini
Researcher (MDM, MIG)
Dilek Yildiz
Research Scholar (MDM, MIG)
Nicholas Gailey
Researcher (MDM, MIG)
Miguel González-Leonardo
Guest Research Scholar (MDM)
News
10 July 2024
Latest European Demographic Data Sheet highlights lasting impact of war and migration
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent displacement of millions of people will have a significant impact on the country’s long-term population structure. Researchers from the Austrian Academy of Sciences, IIASA, and the University of Vienna are forecasting a substantial population decline of 21-31% by 2052.
07 March 2024
Populations of the future: updated tool helps to visualize projections
New projections of population and human capital provide insights into what our future could look like all the way until the year 2100 under different developmental scenarios. The findings are presented in datasets compiled by IIASA scientists in partnership with the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.
27 February 2024
Slovak delegation from the Institute of Economic Research visits IIASA
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) hosted a delegation from the Institute of Economic Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAS). The visit aimed at fostering collaboration and in-depth discussions on key economic models and research areas.
Events
Edinburgh, Scotland
European Population Conference 2024
Lilongwe-Malawi
9th African Population Conference
Columbus, Ohio
IIASA at the PAA Annual Meeting 2024
Focus
24 June 2024
Predicting EU migration trends: merging traditional and social media data
IIASA researchers Dilek Yildiz and Guy Abel highlight the benefits of a new statistical model that combines traditional data sources like the census with real-time Facebook data to estimate EU migrant populations, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
18 June 2024
Human capital growth persists with upcoming population decline
The world's population has surged from 1 billion in 1800 to just above 8 billion today, but demographers predict this growth will halt by the end of the 21st century. IIASA researcher Guillaume Marois explains how a new human capital-weighted population metric is reshaping our understanding of global population dynamics and economic potential.
Publications
Pradhan, P., Weitz, N., Daioglou, V., Abrahão, G.M., Allen, C., Ambrósio, G., Arp, F., Asif, F., Bennich, T., Benton, T.G., Biermann, F., Cao, M., Carlsen, H., Chen, F., Chen, M., Daams, M.N., Dawes, J.H.P., Dhakal, S., Gilmore, E., Miguel, L.J., Hubacek, K., Hu, Y., Jager, W., K.C., S., Kearney, N.M., Khot, U.A., Kluck, T., Kulkarni, S., Leininger, J., Li, C., Li, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Parrado-Hernando, G., Pedercini, M., Phuyal, R.K., Prell, C., Rijal, A., Schweizer, V., Sijtsma, F.J., Soergel, B., Spittler, N., van Vuuren, D., Warchold, A., Weber, E., Wicke, B., Widerberg, O., Wilts, R., Wingens, C., Wu, C., Xing, Q., Yan, J., Yuan, Z., Zhou, X., & Zimm, C. (2024). Three foci at the science-policy interface for systemic Sustainable Development Goal acceleration. Nature Communications 15 (1) e8600. 10.1038/s41467-024-52926-x. Ghio, Daniela, Goujon, Anne , & Bosco, Claudio (2024). Mobility patterns in Austrian and Italian municipalities in the decade before and during the COVID‐19 era. Population, Space and Place e2848. 10.1002/psp.2848. Kluge, L., Olaya Bucaro, O. , K.C., S., Yildiz, D. , Abel, G. , & Schewe, J. (2024). A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections. Demographic Research 51 323-376. 10.4054/DemRes.2024.51.11. Marois, G. , Crespo Cuaresma, J., Zellmann, J., & Reiter, C. (2024). A dataset of human capital-weighted population estimates for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100. Scientific Data 11 (1) e612. 10.1038/s41597-024-03466-y. Yildiz, D. , Wiśniowski, A., Abel, G. , Weber, I., Zagheni, E., Gendronneau, C., & Hoorens, S. (2024). Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union. International Migration Review 10.1177/01979183241249969.